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Forecasts

Forecasts

We forecast key housing variables for over 100 markets, as well as 10 regions and the US overall.

Our Forecasting Process

We collect and analyze a lot of data and debate industry issues with our wide variety of clients to form our conclusions. Our unique process of gathering feedback from our consultants and clients gives us confidence that we make the most informed forecast possible.

What contributes to our forecasting process?

Research Group

Our research team spends countless hours scouring data on each market to collect the evidence informing our conclusions. We study the historical cycles in every market, knowing that history tends to repeat itself—but usually with a twist that is unique to each cycle.  There are a variety of programmatic strategies we employ (depending on which data point we’re forecasting) to produce an initial output that is audited and scrutinized by the other two pillars, which help us hone our end result.

Consulting Market Experts

Our consulting market experts have years of experience in their assigned markets and provide unique insight on a timely basis. They attend just about every major industry event and ask a lot of questions. Multiple consultants are visiting new home communities every day.  These ‘boots on the ground’ activities give us unique insight into individual markets, in real time.

Diversified Client Feedback

We spend a lot of our time with many smart people with diversified backgrounds who know their unique aspects of the market better than we do. Although our team’s extensive housing market knowledge plays a significant role in our processes, our diversified client base makes us all smarter.  We always encourage client feedback in their areas of expertise.

FORECASTING TRACK RECORD

Calling it right

We have a proven track record of accurately calling the market, thanks to our research, collaboration with our clients, and culture of calling it like we see it.

Our existing-home sales forecast was a near perfect bullseye. Our forecast was off by less than a quarter percent while other prestigious forecasters, such as NAR and Moody’s, were off by over 17%.

We were also one of the first to call out declines in big-ticket discretionary remodeling in 2023 due to decelerating home price appreciation, higher interest rates, and more cautious consumer behavior. This was a time when remodeling activity was still very strong, home centers were still experiencing big ticket growth, and remodeling backlogs were still strong.

In a very difficult year for forecasting, our multifamily permits and starts forecast was accurate, as we were one of the only firms to call for an increase year-over-year. Other prestigious forecasters, such as MBA, NAR, and Fannie Mae all called for a decrease in multifamily starts in 2022.

Our mortgage rate forecast was a near perfect bullseye, missing the mark by only 0.1%.

Despite a year of uncertainty and a global pandemic, our forecast of total housing starts was only off by 3%.

Our 2019 total starts forecast, which we set in January 2019, was off by less than half a percent.

Our 2018 total starts forecast, which we set in January 2018, was off 1% (more accurate than MBA, Fannie Mae, NAR, and PNC Bank). 

Our forecasts for both existing home sales and new home sales were within 1.8% of the actual. Our prediction on total housing starts (made back in January 2017) was more accurate than predictions made by MBA, NAR, Fannie Mae, and the Wall Street Journal Consensus. Our single-family permits forecast of 801,000 permits came within 2.3% of the actual.

We hit a bullseye on total housing construction. We called for 1.16 million housing starts, exactly in line with Census full-year 2016 data. We forecasted 11% growth in single-family starts (off slightly from the actual 9% growth) and called for a 7% drop in multifamily starts (actual decline was 3%). In addition to construction, we also called it right with repair and remodeling (R&R) in 2016. Our original forecast called for 7.8% R&R growth, which turned out to be in line with several big name building product companies’ growth as well as professional remodelers. Perhaps more importantly for our building product and investor clients, we were early to the game on our call for big project R&R spending to outperform. Throughout 2016, big ticket sales drove topline growth for Home Depot, Lowe’s, and Fortune Brands.
Our 2015 US housing forecasts on two of the hardest variables to predict, mortgage rates and job growth, came in very accurate. At the beginning of the year we predicted mortgage rates would average 4.0% in 2015, almost spot on with the actual average of 3.9%. We hit a bullseye with our beginning of the year job growth forecast of 2.1%.

At our February company meeting, 11 teams made their predictions for our coveted Forecaster of the Year award. The Bay Area team won, projecting 9.0% price appreciation and 3,200 single-family permits for the year, in comparison to the actual 9.1% appreciation and 3,072 single-family permits.

At the start of the year, we claimed “The Housing Market Is ‘On Fire’ Thanks to Low Mortgage Rates; 2013 Should Be a Banner Year!” with a very bullish forecast, including 8.0% new home price appreciation. The market delivered 8.2% new home price appreciation.
In February 2012, we forecasted 919K starts in 2013, much higher than consensus. Actual housing starts in 2013 totaled 925k.

Our company forecasted a 3% price decline, rising rents, and a bottom in construction. We also cautioned on the impact of student loan debt delaying homeownership before it was covered in the media.

We said “great land will be bid up aggressively,” and land prices soared in early 2010 through 2013.

Our company said future growth would be dominated by renters, and the apartment REIT stocks soared by 84% and renter household formation surged for 6+ years.

We said resale prices would fall another 15%, and they fell 19% in 2008 and 2009. We warned of the tightness of mortgage credit in an email newsletter.

We called that Southern California was a time bomb ready to explode, and then construction fell 84% in 2008 and 2009.

Key housing variables in over 100 markets

Get the most accurate forecasts possible with each research package.

RESEARCH PACKAGES
Metro and Regional Housing Package
Single-Family Rental Package
Building Products Package
Geographic Overview of the Public Home Builders Package
RESEARCH PACKAGES
Metro and Regional Housing Package
Single-Family Rental Package
Building Products Package
Geographic Overview of the Public Home Builders
Burns Home Value Index™

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New Home Price Appreciation

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Resale Home Sales

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Single-Family Permits

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Multifamily Permits

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Employment Growth

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Burns Affordability Index™

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Burns Housing Cycle Risk Index™

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Mortgage Rates

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Apartment Asking Rents

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Households

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Population

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Single-Family Rents

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Single-Family Starts

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Multifamily Starts

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Repair and Remodel

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New Construction Spend

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Subscribe to receive our forecasts

Metro and Regional Housing Package

This package provides a complete picture of housing supply, demand, and affordability through local insight, proprietary surveys, and extensive data analysis. We currently provide an overview of major housing and economic trends across 100 MSAs nationwide.

Single-Family Rental Package

This package provides a comprehensive overview of the single-family rental (SFR) industry’s major markets, including forecasts, SFR market rankings, macro drivers, housing supply, and demographic trends.

Rental Communities Package

This package provides complete look into the multifamily sector, including apartments and dedicated build-to-rent communities. A deep dive into the sector’s major markets, including forecasts, rental market ratings, key fundamentals, economic drivers, demographics, and the impact of alternative housing sectors.

Building Products Package

This package provides current, in-depth insight into building products industry conditions in the country, including a forecast for residential new construction and repair and remodeling spend over the next four years.

Geographic Overview of the Public Home Builders Package

This package is designed for those who compare publicly-traded builders (including securities investors) to each other. Every month we rank each publicly-traded home builder based on the past, current, and forecasted performance of its geographic footprint.

What clients say about us

Recent surveys and custom research provided by both the New Home Trends Institute and JBREC have provided valuable insight into consumer preferences in a post-pandemic environment. Guidance from their discussions, presentations, and monthly webinars have given us valuable context and help to keep us level-headed in a rapidly changing landscape. We’re grateful to have them as a resource every step of the way.

Vice President, Strategic Operations, Public Homebuilder

John Burns Research and Consulting continues to raise the bar as a trusted source of US housing analysis and has proven time and time again to be an invaluable partner when navigating new opportunities.

US President, Privately-Held Developer and Homebuilder

The John Burns Research Team truly looks at the market from each angle to provide us with timely and in-depth information. It’s invaluable!

Senior Executive, Public Homebuilder

We have leveraged JBREC substantially for a multitude of resources throughout the last 15 years. Their macro-level research has influenced our decisions at all levels of the business.

Vice President, Strategic Operations, Public Homebuilder

Recent surveys and custom research provided by both the New Home Trends Institute and JBREC have provided valuable insight into consumer preferences in a post-pandemic environment. Guidance from their discussions, presentations, and monthly webinars have given us valuable context and help to keep us level-headed in a rapidly changing landscape. We’re grateful to have them as a resource every step of the way.

Vice President, Strategic Operations, Public Homebuilder

John Burns Research and Consulting continues to raise the bar as a trusted source of US housing analysis and has proven time and time again to be an invaluable partner when navigating new opportunities.

US President, Privately-Held Developer and Homebuilder

The John Burns Research Team truly looks at the market from each angle to provide us with timely and in-depth information. It’s invaluable!

Senior Executive, Public Homebuilder

We have leveraged JBREC substantially for a multitude of resources throughout the last 15 years. Their macro-level research has influenced our decisions at all levels of the business.

Vice President, Strategic Operations, Public Homebuilder

Trusted by executive decision makers

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Tricon Residential - Logo Transparent
MI Homes - Logo Transparent
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MASCO - Logo Transparent
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Shea Homes- Logo Transparent
NDS - Blue Logo Transparent
BB Living - Logo Transparent
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KTGY - green logo
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WHA Logo - gray
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RESIBUILT - Logo Transparent
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LIXIL Logo Transparent
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Hines - Logo Transparent
Crown Community Development - Logo Transparent
Brookfield Residential - Logo Transparent
Meritage Home - Logo Transparent
Oak Tree - Logo Transparent
Tricon Residential - Logo Transparent
MI Homes - Logo Transparent
Landsea homes - Logo Transparent
MASCO - Logo Transparent
Pulte Group - Logo Transparent
Shea Homes- Logo Transparent
NDS - Blue Logo Transparent
BB Living - Logo Transparent
AHV Communities logo
SFRhub Advisors Logo
Corevest - horizontal Logo Transparent
KTGY - green logo
LGI HOMES LOGO Transparent
WHA Logo - gray
Mattamy Homes - Logo Transparent
RESIBUILT - Logo Transparent
River Islands Logo
Rancho Mission VIejo - Logo Transparent
LIXIL Logo Transparent
Century_Communities- LOGO vertical Purple Transparent
Hines - Logo Transparent
Crown Community Development - Logo Transparent

Trusted by Executive Decision Makers

Brookfield Residential - Logo Transparent
Meritage Home - Logo Transparent
Oak Tree - Logo Transparent
Tricon Residential - Logo Transparent
MI Homes - Logo Transparent
Landsea homes - Logo Transparent
MASCO - Logo Transparent
Pulte Group - Logo Transparent
Shea Homes- Logo Transparent
NDS - Blue Logo Transparent
BB Living - Logo Transparent
AHV Communities logo
SFRhub Advisors Logo
Corevest - horizontal Logo Transparent
KTGY - green logo
LGI HOMES LOGO Transparent
WHA Logo - gray
Mattamy Homes - Logo Transparent
RESIBUILT - Logo Transparent
River Islands Logo
Rancho Mission VIejo - Logo Transparent
LIXIL Logo Transparent
Century_Communities- LOGO vertical Purple Transparent
Hines - Logo Transparent
Crown Community Development - Logo Transparent

Contact us to maximize your opportunities in the housing market.

If you have any questions about our services or would like to speak to one of our experts about how we can help your business, please contact Client Relations at clientservices@jbrec.com.