Forecasts
We forecast key housing variables for over 100 markets, as well as 10 regions and the US overall.
Our Forecasting Process
We collect and analyze a lot of data and debate industry issues with our wide variety of clients to form our conclusions. Our unique process of gathering feedback from our consultants and clients gives us confidence that we make the most informed forecast possible.
What contributes to our forecasting process?
Research Group
Our research team spends countless hours scouring data on each market to collect the evidence informing our conclusions. We study the historical cycles in every market, knowing that history tends to repeat itself—but usually with a twist that is unique to each cycle. There are a variety of programmatic strategies we employ (depending on which data point we’re forecasting) to produce an initial output that is audited and scrutinized by the other two pillars, which help us hone our end result.
Consulting Market Experts
Our consulting market experts have years of experience in their assigned markets and provide unique insight on a timely basis. They attend just about every major industry event and ask a lot of questions. Multiple consultants are visiting new home communities every day. These ‘boots on the ground’ activities give us unique insight into individual markets, in real time.
Diversified Client Feedback
We spend a lot of our time with many smart people with diversified backgrounds who know their unique aspects of the market better than we do. Although our team’s extensive housing market knowledge plays a significant role in our processes, our diversified client base makes us all smarter. We always encourage client feedback in their areas of expertise.
FORECASTING TRACK RECORD
Calling it right
We have a proven track record of accurately calling the market, thanks to our research, collaboration with our clients, and culture of calling it like we see it.
In a very difficult year for forecasting, our multifamily permits and starts forecast was accurate, as we were one of the only firms to call for an increase year-over-year. Other prestigious forecasters, such as MBA, NAR, and Fannie Mae all called for a decrease in multifamily starts in 2022.
Our mortgage rate forecast was a near perfect bullseye, missing the mark by only 0.1%.
Despite a year of uncertainty and a global pandemic, our forecast of total housing starts was only off by 3%.
Our 2019 total starts forecast, which we set in January 2019, was off by less than half a percent.
Our 2018 total starts forecast, which we set in January 2018, was off 1% (more accurate than MBA, Fannie Mae, NAR, and PNC Bank).
Our forecasts for both existing home sales and new home sales were within 1.8% of the actual. Our prediction on total housing starts (made back in January 2017) was more accurate than predictions made by MBA, NAR, Fannie Mae, and the Wall Street Journal Consensus. Our single-family permits forecast of 801,000 permits came within 2.3% of the actual.
At our February company meeting, 11 teams made their predictions for our coveted Forecaster of the Year award. The Bay Area team won, projecting 9.0% price appreciation and 3,200 single-family permits for the year, in comparison to the actual 9.1% appreciation and 3,072 single-family permits.
Our company forecasted a 3% price decline, rising rents, and a bottom in construction. We also cautioned on the impact of student loan debt delaying homeownership before it was covered in the media.
Our company said future growth would be dominated by renters, and the apartment REIT stocks soared by 84% and renter household formation surged for 6+ years.
We said resale prices would fall another 15%, and they fell 19% in 2008 and 2009. We warned of the tightness of mortgage credit in an email newsletter.
Key housing variables in over 100 markets
Get the most accurate forecasts possible with each research package.
RESEARCH PACKAGES | Metro and Regional Housing Package | Single-Family Rental Package | Building Products Package | Geographic Overview of the Public Home Builders Package |
|---|
RESEARCH PACKAGES | Metro and Regional Housing Package | Single-Family Rental Package | Building Products Package | Geographic Overview of the Public Home Builders |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Burns Home Value Index™ |  |  |  |  |
New Home Price Appreciation |  |  |  |  |
Resale Home Sales |  |  |  |  |
Single-Family Permits |  |  |  |  |
Multifamily Permits |  |  |  |  |
Employment Growth |  |  |  |  |
Burns Affordability Index™ |  |  |  |  |
Burns Housing Cycle Risk Index™ |  |  |  |  |
Mortgage Rates |  |  |  |  |
Apartment Asking Rents |  |  |  |  |
Households |  |  |  |  |
Population |  |  |  |  |
Single-Family Rents |  |  |  | |
Single-Family Starts |  |  |  |  |
Multifamily Starts |  |  |  |  |
Repair and Remodel |  | |||
New Construction Spend |  |
Subscribe to receive our forecasts
Metro and Regional Housing Package
This package provides a complete picture of housing supply, demand, and affordability through local insight, proprietary surveys, and extensive data analysis. We currently provide an overview of major housing and economic trends across 100 MSAs nationwide.
Single-Family Rental Package
This package provides a comprehensive overview of the single-family rental (SFR) industry’s major markets, including forecasts, SFR market rankings, macro drivers, housing supply, and demographic trends.
Building Products Package
This package provides current, in-depth insight into building products industry conditions in the country, including a forecast for residential new construction and repair and remodeling spend over the next four years.
Geographic Overview of the Public Home Builders Package
This package is designed for those who compare publicly-traded builders (including securities investors) to each other. Every month we rank each publicly-traded home builder based on the past, current, and forecasted performance of its geographic footprint.
What clients say about us
Recent surveys and custom research provided by both the New Home Trends Institute and JBREC have provided valuable insight into consumer preferences in a post-pandemic environment. Guidance from their discussions, presentations, and monthly webinars have given us valuable context and help to keep us level-headed in a rapidly changing landscape. We’re grateful to have them as a resource every step of the way.
John Burns Research and Consulting continues to raise the bar as a trusted source of US housing analysis and has proven time and time again to be an invaluable partner when navigating new opportunities.
The John Burns Research Team truly looks at the market from each angle to provide us with timely and in-depth information. It’s invaluable!
We have leveraged JBREC substantially for a multitude of resources throughout the last 15 years. Their macro-level research has influenced our decisions at all levels of the business.
Trusted by executive decision makers
Trusted by Executive Decision Makers
Contact us to maximize your opportunities in the housing market.
If you have any questions about our services or would like to speak to one of our experts about how we can help your business, please contact Client Relations at clientservices@jbrec.com.
