Current Market Share and Reliable Forecasts through 2026

We partnered with Home Innovation Research Labs to produce what we believe is the best and most current data and forecast to help US building products companies size their market and track their growth rates relative to the addressable market.

Home Innovation Research Labs has been surveying home builders and households for decades. Their most recent detailed survey included responses from ~1,300 home builders who build ~32,000 homes per year, and ~75,000 households, more than half of whom had done a repair or remodel project in the last year.

The Building Products Demand Meter Forecasts measure installed residential market volumes across 18 major building product categories—from dimensional lumber and siding to HVAC and interior paint—through 2026.

Updated January 2024

Siding

US residential siding demand is projected to rise from 9.48 billion sq. ft. in 2023 to 9.60 billion sq. ft. in 2024, an increase of +1.3% by volume. 

Siding
Siding: 2024 Projected Residential End Market Shares

New Construction

36%

Repair and Remodel

64%

Sources: John Burns Research and Consulting, LLC; Home Innovation Research Labs

Building Products Demand Meter Forecast: Siding uses JBREC’s proprietary market research to help you understand both market changes and total installed volume on an annual and quarterly basis. Clients can access data on siding repair and remodels, additions, and replacements to existing homes, as well as siding demand for new residential construction (includes both single-family and multifamily).

Segment

Quarterly Unit Installed Volumes are available for New Construction and Repair and Remodel end market exposures. Please talk to our building products consulting team for custom regional and material breakouts.

Materials Covered

Includes all siding materials: plywood, engineered wood (fiber based, engineered wood), strand based, cedar shingles or shakes, cedarboards, redwood boards, other lumber boards, other wood-based siding, brick, natural stone, manufactured stone, stucco (cement), stucco (synthetic oreifs), architectural concrete block, fiber cement, vinyl, polymer shakes, plastic composite, aluminum, steel, and other

Updated January 2024

Current Conditions

  • We expect annualized 1Q24 volumes to be 9.41 billion sq. ft. (-1.4% YOY).
  • Stronger year-over-year housing starts at the end of 2023 and into early 2024 will drive delayed demand for siding in new construction, as siding is installed more toward the middle of the construction process.
  • Regional variances in demand, with stronger volumes in Sunbelt regions with stronger new construction activity
  • Our consultants report heavier use of mixed-material siding in new construction and R&R projects.
  • Our monthly Building Products Dealer Survey, in partnership with the Executive Council on Construction Supply and the National Lumber and Building Materials Dealers, has shown weaker year-over-year demand from siding companies in late 2023.
  • The trend toward smaller home sizes reduces the amount of installed siding per start.
  • Weakness in bigger-ticket remodeling projects is leading to continued softness for siding usage in R&R projects.

Demand Outlook

  • 9.60 billion sq. ft. installed in 2024 (+1.3% YOY)
  • We expect 2024 single-family housing starts to increase, driving demand for siding. Offsetting this is a significant contraction in multifamily new construction. We expect multifamily new construction to contract by double digits in 2024 due to completed multifamily units outpacing demand and a higher cost of capital to fund multifamily projects.
  • Rate buydowns and quick-move-in homes supported 2023 new home sales, according to our monthly Builder Survey. The subsequent push to find replacement communities has primed production builders for growth.
  • We expect an increase in siding usage in R&R projects in 2H24 due to increases in bigger-ticket remodeling projects (because of falling interest rates).
Forecasts through 2026 are available exclusively to building products research members. Click here to learn more.

About our partner

Home Innovation Logo-Horizontal-Color-01

Home Innovation Research Labs

Home Innovation Research Labs (formerly the NAHB Research Center) is a full-service research, testing, and consulting firm determined to improve the quality, durability, affordability, and environmental performance of single- and multifamily homes and home-building products.

Reach out to our partners at Home Innovation

Ed Hudson

Director, Market Research Division at Home Innovation Research Labs

Mike Luzier

President & CEO at Home Innovation Research Labs

Building Products Demand Meter

This industry-first data product tracks current and historical US residential installed product volumes (final demand) for major building product categories.

Members can access market sizes for 18 building product categories.

Track US residential installed product volume for 18 unique building product categories: lumber, concrete, drywall, paint, bathroom fixtures, lighting, and more.

Three-year forecast of levels and growth rates are available annually and quarterly.

History of changes in product volume back to 2000 for each building product category

Also available in standardized format, enabling easy comparisons of product installation volumes relative to each category’s historical range

Based on JBREC proprietary forecasts and extensive, industry-leading survey data from Home Innovation Research Labs

Questions about our Building Products Demand Meter?

Custom Building Products Consulting Services

Building Products Consulting

Structural Building Materials, Interior Fixtures, Prefab Construction, Commercial Construction

Our team is comprised of industry experts with diverse sector and functional experience. We partner across organizations to provide custom consulting reports to aid organic and inorganic investment decisions, strategic planning, and marketing.

Capabilities

Through our custom consulting you can receive accurate answers to questions like these for siding:

What is the market share of various siding materials, and are material shifts expected?

How are code changes impacting the selection of siding materials?

What styles and colors are popular with homeowners?

Building Products Demand Meter Categories

We measure installed residential market volumes across 18 major building product categories.

Forecasts through 2026 are available to clients. Click on each product category to peek at our 2024 forecasts.

Contact us to maximize your opportunities in the housing market.

If you have any questions about our services, or if you would like to speak to one of our experts about how we can help your business, please contact Client Relations at clientservices@jbrec.com.