Current Market Share and Reliable Forecasts through 2026

We partnered with Home Innovation Research Labs to produce what we believe is the best and most current data and forecast to help US building products companies size their market and track their growth rates relative to the addressable market.

Home Innovation Research Labs has been surveying home builders and households for decades. Their most recent detailed survey included responses from ~1,300 home builders who build ~32,000 homes per year, and ~75,000 households, more than half of whom had done a repair or remodel project in the last year.

The Building Products Demand Meter Forecasts measure installed residential market volumes across 18 major building product categories—from dimensional lumber and siding to HVAC and interior paint—through 2026.

Updated January 2024

Sheathing

US residential sheathing demand is projected to rise from 20.15 billion sq. ft. in 2023 to 20.19 billion sq. ft. in 2024 (on a 3/8’’ basis), an increase of +0.2% by volume. 

Sheathing
Sheathing: 2024 Projected Residential End Market Shares

New Construction

68%

Repair and Remodel

32%

Sources: John Burns Research and Consulting, LLC; Home Innovation Research Labs

Building Products Demand Meter Forecast: Sheathing uses JBREC’s proprietary market research to help you understand both market changes and total installed volume on an annual and quarterly basis. Clients can access data on sheathing repair and remodels, additions, and replacements to existing homes, as well as sheathing demand for new residential construction (includes both single-family and multifamily).

Segment

Quarterly Unit Installed Volumes are available for New Construction and Repair and Remodel end market exposures. Please talk to our building products consulting team for custom regional and material breakouts.

Materials Covered

Includes all plywood and OSB sheathing (includes waste factors)

Updated January 2024

Current Conditions

  • We expect annualized 1Q24 volumes to be 19.81 billion sq. ft. on a 3/8’’ basis (+4.4% YOY). This covers all plywood and OSB sheathing (including waste factors).
  • Stronger year-over-year single-family starts to end 2023 and to start 2024 are expected to drive 1H24 demand for framing and sheathing, which is at the beginning of the construction process. Our monthly Building Products Dealer Survey, in partnership with the Executive Council on Construction Supply and the National Lumber and Building Materials Dealers, has shown an improvement in sheathing orders since mid-2023.
  • The trend toward smaller home sizes reduces the amount of installed sheathing per start.
  • Weakness in bigger-ticket remodeling projects is leading to continued softness for sheathing usage in R&R projects.
  • Sheathing supply and prices have stabilized since the end of 2022 due to improved product availability (despite production curtailments by producers).

Demand Outlook

  • 20.19 billion sq. ft. (3/8” basis) installed in 2024 (+0.2% YOY), with stronger usage in 1H24
  • Rate buydowns and quick-move-in homes supported 2023 new home sales, according to our monthly Builder Survey. The subsequent push to find replacement communities has primed production builders for growth.
  • We expect 2024 single-family housing starts to increase, driving demand for sheathing. Offsetting this is a significant contraction in multifamily new construction. We expect multifamily new construction to contract by double digits in 2024 due to completed multifamily units outpacing demand and a higher cost of capital to fund multifamily projects.
  • Weaker 2H24 new construction volumes partially offset by stronger 2H24 big-ticket remodeling projects
Forecasts through 2026 are available exclusively to building products research members. Click here to learn more.

About our partner

Home Innovation Logo-Horizontal-Color-01

Home Innovation Research Labs

Home Innovation Research Labs (formerly the NAHB Research Center) is a full-service research, testing, and consulting firm determined to improve the quality, durability, affordability, and environmental performance of single- and multifamily homes and home-building products.

Reach out to our partners at Home Innovation

Ed Hudson

Director, Market Research Division at Home Innovation Research Labs

Mike Luzier

President & CEO at Home Innovation Research Labs

Building Products Demand Meter

This industry-first data product tracks current and historical US residential installed product volumes (final demand) for major building product categories.

Members can access market sizes for 18 building product categories.

Track US residential installed product volume for 18 unique building product categories: lumber, concrete, drywall, paint, bathroom fixtures, lighting, and more.

Three-year forecast of levels and growth rates are available annually and quarterly.

History of changes in product volume back to 2000 for each building product category

Also available in standardized format, enabling easy comparisons of product installation volumes relative to each category’s historical range

Based on JBREC proprietary forecasts and extensive, industry-leading survey data from Home Innovation Research Labs

Questions about our Building Products Demand Meter?

Custom Building Products Consulting Services

Building Products Consulting

Structural Building Materials, Interior Fixtures, Prefab Construction, Commercial Construction

Our team is comprised of industry experts with diverse sector and functional experience. We partner across organizations to provide custom consulting reports to aid organic and inorganic investment decisions, strategic planning, and marketing.

Capabilities

Through our custom consulting you can receive accurate answers to questions like these for sheathing:

How are energy code changes impacting the sheathing used in new construction?

How are changes to floor design impacting sheathing products?

How will production curtailments and mill conversions affect the long-term price of sheathing?

Building Products Demand Meter Categories

We measure installed residential market volumes across 18 major building product categories.

Forecasts through 2026 are available to clients. Click on each product category to peek at our 2024 forecasts.

Contact us to maximize your opportunities in the housing market.

If you have any questions about our services, or if you would like to speak to one of our experts about how we can help your business, please contact Client Relations at clientservices@jbrec.com.