Interior Paint Demand Meter Forecast

Current Market Share and Reliable Forecasts through 2026

We partnered with Home Innovation Research Labs to produce what we believe is the best and most current data and forecast to help US building products companies size their market and track their growth rates relative to the addressable market.

Home Innovation Research Labs has been surveying home builders and households for decades. Their most recent detailed survey included responses from ~1,300 home builders who build ~32,000 homes per year, and ~75,000 households, more than half of whom had done a repair or remodel project in the last year.

The Building Products Demand Meter Forecasts measure installed residential market volumes across 18 major building product categories—from dimensional lumber and siding to HVAC and interior paint—through 2026.

Updated January 2024

Interior Paint

US residential interior paint demand is projected to increase from 60.25 billion sq. ft. of surface area covered in 2023 to 61.01 billion sq. ft. of surface area covered in 2024, an increase of +1.3% by volume. 

Interior Paint: 2024 Projected Residential End Market Shares

New Construction

18%

Repair and Remodel

82%

Sources: John Burns Research and Consulting, LLC; Home Innovation Research Labs

Building Products Demand Meter Forecast: Interior Paint uses JBREC’s proprietary market research to help you understand both market changes and total installed volume on an annual and quarterly basis. Clients can access data on interior paint repair and remodels, additions, and replacements to existing homes, as well as interior paint demand for new residential construction (includes both single-family and multifamily).

Segment

Quarterly Unit Installed Volumes are available for New Construction and Repair and Remodel end market exposures. Please talk to our building products consulting team for custom regional and material breakouts.

Materials Covered

Includes painted interior ceilings, walls, doors, and molding

725

Completed Consulting Projects
in 2023

408

Consulting Clients Serviced
in 2023

154

Metro Areas Visited
in 2023

Updated January 2024

Current Conditions

  • We expect annualized 1Q24 volumes to be 59.85 billion sq. ft. of surface area covered (+1.07% YOY), including architectural coatings applied to interior ceilings, walls, doors, and molding.
  • Stronger year-over-year housing starts at the end of 2023 and into early 2024 will drive delayed demand for interior paint in new construction, as it is applied more toward the end of the construction process.
  • Year-over-year weakness in paint demand as professional backlogs have been worked through. DIY demand remains lower due to the pull-forward of interior paint projects during Covid.

Demand Outlook

  • 61.01 billion sq. ft. interior surface area covered in 2024 (+1.3% YOY)
  • Relatively low-barrier-to-entry DIY category that will be favorably positioned as DIY activity returns. Households are expected to increase DIY paint activity to save on the overall cost of remodels, leaving Pros to do the higher-barrier-to-entry projects.
  • We expect 2024 single-family housing starts to increase, driving demand for interior paint. Offsetting this is a significant contraction in multifamily new construction. We expect multifamily new construction to contract by double digits in 2024 due to completed multifamily units outpacing demand and a higher cost of capital to fund multifamily projects.
  • Rate buydowns and quick-move-in homes supported 2023 new home sales, according to our monthly Builder Survey. The subsequent push to find replacement communities has primed production builders for growth.
  • Weaker 2H24 new construction volumes offset by stronger R&R projects, especially small projects, to which interior paint is attached
  • We expect existing home sales to increase in 2024, leading to increased interior paint usage pre/post-transaction.
Forecasts through 2026 are available exclusively to building products research members. Click here to learn more.

About our partner

Home Innovation Logo-Horizontal-Color-01

Home Innovation Research Labs

Home Innovation Research Labs (formerly the NAHB Research Center) is a full-service research, testing, and consulting firm determined to improve the quality, durability, affordability, and environmental performance of single- and multifamily homes and home-building products.

Reach out to our partners at Home Innovation

Ed Hudson

Director, Market Research Division at Home Innovation Research Labs

Mike Luzier

President & CEO at Home Innovation Research Labs

Building Products Demand Meter

This industry-first data product tracks current and historical US residential installed product volumes (final demand) for major building product categories.

Members can access market sizes for 18 building product categories.

Track US residential installed product volume for 18 unique building product categories: lumber, concrete, drywall, paint, bathroom fixtures, lighting, and more.

Three-year forecast of levels and growth rates are available annually and quarterly.

History of changes in product volume back to 2000 for each building product category

Also available in standardized format, enabling easy comparisons of product installation volumes relative to each category’s historical range

Based on JBREC proprietary forecasts and extensive, industry-leading survey data from Home Innovation Research Labs

Questions about our Building Products Demand Meter?

Custom Building Products Consulting Services

Building Products Consulting

Structural Building Materials, Interior Fixtures, Prefab Construction, Commercial Construction

Our team is comprised of industry experts with diverse sector and functional experience. We partner across organizations to provide custom consulting reports to aid organic and inorganic investment decisions, strategic planning, and marketing.

Capabilities

Through our custom consulting you can receive accurate answers to questions like these for interior paint:

What is the market share of low-emission/no-scent paint?

What was the impact of interior paint pull-forward from Covid, and how will that impact near-term volumes?

What colors are popular with homeowners?

Building Products Demand Meter Categories

We measure installed residential market volumes across 18 major building product categories.

Forecasts through 2026 are available to clients. Click on each product category to peek at our 2024 forecasts.

Contact us to maximize your opportunities in the housing market.

If you have any questions about our services, or if you would like to speak to one of our experts about how we can help your business, please contact Client Relations at clientservices@jbrec.com.