Current Market Share and Reliable Forecasts through 2026

We partnered with Home Innovation Research Labs to produce what we believe is the best and most current data and forecast to help US building products companies size their market and track their growth rates relative to the addressable market.

Home Innovation Research Labs has been surveying home builders and households for decades. Their most recent detailed survey included responses from ~1,300 home builders who build ~32,000 homes per year, and ~75,000 households, more than half of whom had done a repair or remodel project in the last year.

The Building Products Demand Meter Forecasts measure installed residential market volumes across 18 major building product categories—from dimensional lumber and siding to HVAC and interior paint—through 2026.

Updated January 2024

HVAC

US residential HVAC systems demand is projected to rise from 10.69 million units installed in 2023 to 10.82 million units installed in 2024, an increase of +1.3% by volume. 

HVAC
HVAC: 2024 Projected Residential End Market Shares

New Construction

26%

Repair and Remodel

74%

Sources: John Burns Research and Consulting, LLC; Home Innovation Research Labs

Building Products Demand Meter Forecast: HVAC uses JBREC’s proprietary market research to help you understand both market changes and total installed volume on an annual and quarterly basis. Clients can access data on HVAC repair and remodels, additions, and replacements to existing homes, as well as HVAC demand for new residential construction (includes both single-family and multifamily).

Segment

Quarterly Unit Installed Volumes are available for New Construction and Repair and Remodel end market exposures. Please talk to our building products consulting team for custom regional and material breakouts.

Materials Covered

Includes all installed heating and cooling systems (excludes window units)

Updated January 2024

Current Conditions

  • We expect annualized 1Q24 installed volumes to be 10.83 million units (+4.4% YOY).
  • Stronger housing starts from late 2023 into 2024 will lead to delayed installation of new HVAC systems into 2024.
  • Replacement volumes remain elevated as homeowners are choosing to replace HVAC systems vs. repair existing systems.
  • Manufacturer backlogs have now stabilized, and distributor inventories are normalized to meet current demand.

Demand Outlook

  • 10.82 million units installed in 2024 (+1.3% YOY)
  • Rate buydowns and quick-move-in homes supported 2023 new home sales, according to our monthly Builder Survey. The subsequent push to find replacement communities has primed production builders for growth.
  • Demand tailwinds from energy efficiency incentives and code changes for higher efficiency heating and cooling units, particularly related to 2023 changes to Seasonal Energy Efficiency Ratio requirements
  • We expect tax incentives from the Inflation Reduction Act to increase demand for heat pumps.
  • We expect replacement vs. repair of existing systems to continue.
Forecasts through 2026 are available exclusively to building products research members. Click here to learn more.

Demand Drivers

About our partner

Home Innovation Logo-Horizontal-Color-01

Home Innovation Research Labs

Home Innovation Research Labs (formerly the NAHB Research Center) is a full-service research, testing, and consulting firm determined to improve the quality, durability, affordability, and environmental performance of single- and multifamily homes and home-building products.

Reach out to our partners at Home Innovation

Ed Hudson

Director, Market Research Division at Home Innovation Research Labs

Mike Luzier

President & CEO at Home Innovation Research Labs

Building Products Demand Meter

This industry-first data product tracks current and historical US residential installed product volumes (final demand) for major building product categories.

Members can access market sizes for 18 building product categories.

Track US residential installed product volume for 18 unique building product categories: lumber, concrete, drywall, paint, bathroom fixtures, lighting, and more.

Three-year forecast of levels and growth rates are available annually and quarterly.

History of changes in product volume back to 2000 for each building product category

Also available in standardized format, enabling easy comparisons of product installation volumes relative to each category’s historical range

Based on JBREC proprietary forecasts and extensive, industry-leading survey data from Home Innovation Research Labs

Questions about our Building Products Demand Meter?

Custom Building Products Consulting Services

Building Products Consulting

Structural Building Materials, Interior Fixtures, Prefab Construction, Commercial Construction

Our team is comprised of industry experts with diverse sector and functional experience. We partner across organizations to provide custom consulting reports to aid organic and inorganic investment decisions, strategic planning, and marketing.

Capabilities

Through our custom consulting you can receive accurate answers to questions like these for HVAC:

What is the market share of heat pumps and geothermal units?

How are energy efficiency code changes expected to impact the HVAC market?

What is the market share of electric vs gas vs propane heating systems?

Building Products Demand Meter Categories

We measure installed residential market volumes across 18 major building product categories.

Forecasts through 2026 are available to clients. Click on each product category to peek at our 2024 forecasts.

Contact us to maximize your opportunities in the housing market.

If you have any questions about our services, or if you would like to speak to one of our experts about how we can help your business, please contact Client Relations at clientservices@jbrec.com.