Current Market Share and Reliable Forecasts through 2026

We partnered with Home Innovation Research Labs to produce what we believe is the best and most current data and forecast to help US building products companies size their market and track their growth rates relative to the addressable market.

Home Innovation Research Labs has been surveying home builders and households for decades. Their most recent detailed survey included responses from ~1,300 home builders who build ~32,000 homes per year, and ~75,000 households, more than half of whom had done a repair or remodel project in the last year.

The Building Products Demand Meter Forecasts measure installed residential market volumes across 18 major building product categories—from dimensional lumber and siding to HVAC and interior paint—through 2026.

Updated January 2024

Flooring

US residential flooring demand is projected to increase from 18.35 billion sq. ft. in 2023 to 18.77 billion sq. ft. in 2024, an increase of +2.3% by volume. 

Flooring
Flooring: 2024 Projected Residential End Market Shares

New Construction

18%

Repair and Remodel

82%

Sources: John Burns Research and Consulting, LLC; Home Innovation Research Labs

Building Products Demand Meter Forecast: Flooring uses JBREC’s proprietary market research to help you understand both market changes and total installed volume on an annual and quarterly basis. Clients can access data on flooring repair and remodels, additions, and replacements to existing homes, as well as flooring demand for new residential construction (includes both single-family and multifamily).

Segment

Quarterly Unit Installed Volumes are available for New Construction and Repair and Remodel end market exposures. Please talk to our building products consulting team for custom regional and material breakouts.

Materials Covered

Includes carpeting, wood (solid and engineered), vinyl sheet, vinyl tile, LVT/LVP tile or plank, laminate, ceramic tile, marble, and other flooring installed in the living room, dining room, family room, rec room, den, kitchen, bedroom, bathroom, powder room, foyer, hallway, basement, and other areas

Does not include EWP

Updated January 2024

Current Conditions

  • We expect annualized 1Q24 installed volumes to be 18.08 billion sq. ft. (-0.7% YOY). This includes carpeting, wood (solid and engineered), vinyl sheet, vinyl tile, LVT/LVP tile or plank, laminate, ceramic tile, marble, and other flooring materials (and excludes EWP).
  • Volume declines reflect weaker new construction in 2023 and soft demand from weak big-ticket remodeling projects.
  • Our 4Q23 US Remodeling Index, in partnership with Qualified Remodeler, revealed that 60% of professional remodelers cited that elevated interest rates impacted their business, resulting in fewer projects.
  • Our US Remodeling Index indicates that trade-downs in flooring are more common than in other remodeling categories.
  • The rate of year-over-year declines improved throughout 2023, and installed volumes may be near a bottom.

Demand Outlook

  • 18.77 billion sq. ft. installed in 2024 (+2.3% YOY)
  • Stronger year-over-year housing starts at the end of 2023 and into early 2024 will drive delayed demand for flooring in new construction, as flooring is installed more toward the end of the construction process.
  • We expect 2024 single-family housing starts to increase, driving demand for flooring. Offsetting this is a significant contraction in multifamily new construction. We expect multifamily new construction to contract by double digits in 2024 due to completed multifamily units outpacing demand and a higher cost of capital to fund multifamily projects.
  • We expect existing home sales to improve in 2024. Flooring replacement is more closely correlated with existing home sales than other product categories.
  • Consumer preference away from carpet to “clickable” hard-surface flooring, such as LVT/LVP, engineered wood, hardwood, and laminate, according to the 4Q23 US Custom Residential Architecture Index, in partnership with Residential Design
  • According to our consultants, build-to-rent operators prefer more low-maintenance and high-durability flooring materials to lengthen the replacement cycle.
Forecasts through 2026 are available exclusively to building products research members. Click here to learn more.

About our partner

Home Innovation Logo-Horizontal-Color-01

Home Innovation Research Labs

Home Innovation Research Labs (formerly the NAHB Research Center) is a full-service research, testing, and consulting firm determined to improve the quality, durability, affordability, and environmental performance of single- and multifamily homes and home-building products.

Reach out to our partners at Home Innovation

Ed Hudson

Director, Market Research Division at Home Innovation Research Labs

Mike Luzier

President & CEO at Home Innovation Research Labs

Building Products Demand Meter

This industry-first data product tracks current and historical US residential installed product volumes (final demand) for major building product categories.

Members can access market sizes for 18 building product categories.

Track US residential installed product volume for 18 unique building product categories: lumber, concrete, drywall, paint, bathroom fixtures, lighting, and more.

Three-year forecast of levels and growth rates are available annually and quarterly.

History of changes in product volume back to 2000 for each building product category

Also available in standardized format, enabling easy comparisons of product installation volumes relative to each category’s historical range

Based on JBREC proprietary forecasts and extensive, industry-leading survey data from Home Innovation Research Labs

Questions about our Building Products Demand Meter?

Custom Building Products Consulting Services

Building Products Consulting

Structural Building Materials, Interior Fixtures, Prefab Construction, Commercial Construction

Our team is comprised of industry experts with diverse sector and functional experience. We partner across organizations to provide custom consulting reports to aid organic and inorganic investment decisions, strategic planning, and marketing.

Capabilities

Through our custom consulting you can receive accurate answers to questions like these for flooring:

What is the market share of various flooring materials, and are material shifts expected?

What percentage of flooring materials are imported vs. domestically produced?

Has consumer perception of laminate flooring changed?

Building Products Demand Meter Categories

We measure installed residential market volumes across 18 major building product categories.

Forecasts through 2026 are available to clients. Click on each product category to peek at our 2024 forecasts.

Contact us to maximize your opportunities in the housing market.

If you have any questions about our services, or if you would like to speak to one of our experts about how we can help your business, please contact Client Relations at clientservices@jbrec.com.