Dimensional Lumber Demand Meter Forecast

Current Market Share and Reliable Forecasts through 2026

We partnered with Home Innovation Research Labs to produce what we believe is the best and most current data and forecast to help US building products companies size their market and track their growth rates relative to the addressable market.

Home Innovation Research Labs has been surveying home builders and households for decades. Their most recent detailed survey included responses from ~1,300 home builders who build ~32,000 homes per year, and ~75,000 households, more than half of whom had done a repair or remodel project in the last year.

The Building Products Demand Meter Forecasts measure installed residential market volumes across 18 major building product categories—from dimensional lumber and siding to HVAC and interior paint—through 2026.

Updated January 2024

Dimensional Lumber

US residential dimensional lumber demand is projected to decline from 19.14 billion board feet in 2023 to 18.89 billion board feet in 2024, a decline of -1.3% by volume. 

Dimensional Lumber: 2024 Projected Residential End Market Shares

New Construction

62%

Repair and Remodel

38%

Sources: John Burns Research and Consulting, LLC; Home Innovation Research Labs

Building Products Demand Meter Forecast: Dimensional Lumber uses JBREC’s proprietary market research to help you understand both market changes and total installed volume on an annual and quarterly basis. Clients can access data on dimensional lumber repair and remodels, additions, and replacements to existing homes, as well as dimensional lumber demand for new residential construction (includes both single-family and multifamily).

Segment

Quarterly Unit Installed Volumes are available for New Construction and Repair and Remodel end market exposures. Please talk to our building products consulting team for custom regional and material breakouts.

Materials Covered

Includes dimensional lumber used in structural floors, walls, and roofs

Excludes treated lumber, temporary structures, scrap waste, scaffolding, doors/door frames, and blocking for drywall

Updated January 2024

Current Conditions

  • We expect annualized 1Q24 volumes to be 18.39 billion board feet (+1.9% YOY), including dimensional lumber used in structural floors, walls, and roofs (and excluding scrap waste).
  • Stronger year-over-year single-family starts to end 2023 and to start 2024 are expected to drive 1H24 demand for framing lumber, which is at the beginning of the construction process.
  • Our monthly Builder Survey shows strong new home sales and starts above seasonal norms from rate buydowns.
  • Our monthly Building Products Dealer Survey, in partnership with the Executive Council on Construction Supply and the National Lumber and Building Materials Dealers, has shown an improvement in lumber orders since mid-2023.
  • The trend toward smaller home sizes reduces the amount of installed framing lumber per start.
  • Weakness in bigger-ticket remodeling projects is leading to continued softness for lumber usage in R&R projects.

Demand Outlook

  • 18.89 billion board feet installed in 2024 (-1.3% YOY), with stronger product usage in 1H24
  • Rate buydowns and quick-move-in homes supported 2023 new home sales. The subsequent push to find replacement communities has primed production builders for growth, according to our monthly Builder Survey.
  • We expect 2024 single-family housing starts to increase, driving demand for dimensional lumber. Offsetting this is significant contraction in multifamily new construction. We expect multifamily new construction to contract by double digits in 2024 due to completed multifamily units outpacing demand and a higher cost of capital to fund multifamily projects.
  • Weaker 2H24 new construction volumes are partially offset by stronger 2H24 big-ticket remodeling projects, which drive dimensional lumber R&R demand.
Forecasts through 2026 are available exclusively to building products research members. Click here to learn more.

About our partner

Home Innovation Logo-Horizontal-Color-01

Home Innovation Research Labs

Home Innovation Research Labs (formerly the NAHB Research Center) is a full-service research, testing, and consulting firm determined to improve the quality, durability, affordability, and environmental performance of single- and multifamily homes and home-building products.

Reach out to our partners at Home Innovation

Ed Hudson

Director, Market Research Division at Home Innovation Research Labs

Mike Luzier

President & CEO at Home Innovation Research Labs

Building Products Demand Meter

This industry-first data product tracks current and historical US residential installed product volumes (final demand) for major building product categories.

Members can access market sizes for 18 building product categories.

Track US residential installed product volume for 18 unique building product categories: lumber, concrete, drywall, paint, bathroom fixtures, lighting, and more.

Three-year forecast of levels and growth rates are available annually and quarterly.

History of changes in product volume back to 2000 for each building product category

Also available in standardized format, enabling easy comparisons of product installation volumes relative to each category’s historical range

Based on JBREC proprietary forecasts and extensive, industry-leading survey data from Home Innovation Research Labs

Questions about our Building Products Demand Meter?

Custom Building Products Consulting Services

Building Products Consulting

Structural Building Materials, Interior Fixtures, Prefab Construction, Commercial Construction

Our team is comprised of industry experts with diverse sector and functional experience. We partner across organizations to provide custom consulting reports to aid organic and inorganic investment decisions, strategic planning, and marketing.

Capabilities

Through our custom consulting you can receive accurate answers to questions like these for dimensional lumber:

How is the mix of wood species changing?

What is the outlook for precut framing lumber?

What is the distribution of lumber to turnkey framers?

How are imports from Europe/Asia impacting the North American market?

Building Products Demand Meter Categories

We measure installed residential market volumes across 18 major building product categories.

Forecasts through 2026 are available to clients. Click on each product category to peek at our 2024 forecasts.

Contact us to maximize your opportunities in the housing market.

If you have any questions about our services, or if you would like to speak to one of our experts about how we can help your business, please contact Client Relations at clientservices@jbrec.com.