Countertops Demand Meter Forecast

Current Market Share and Reliable Forecasts through 2027

We partnered with Home Innovation Research Labs to produce what we believe is the best and most current data and forecast to help US building products companies size their market and track their growth rates relative to the addressable market.

Home Innovation Research Labs has been surveying home builders and households for decades. Their most recent detailed survey included responses from ~1,300 home builders who build ~32,000 homes per year, and ~75,000 households, more than half of whom had done a repair or remodel project in the last year.

The Building Products Demand Meter Forecasts measure installed residential market volumes across 18 major building product categories—from dimensional lumber and siding to HVAC and interior paint—through 2027.

Updated April 2024

Countertops

US residential countertops demand is projected to be 115 million linear ft. installed in 2024, a decline of -1% by volume YOY.

Counter
Countertops: Estimated Residential End Market Shares

New Construction

37%

Repair and Remodel

63%

Sources: John Burns Research and Consulting, LLC; Home Innovation Research Labs

Building Products Demand Meter Forecast: Countertops uses JBREC’s proprietary market research to help you understand both market changes and total installed volume on an annual and quarterly basis. Clients can access data on countertop repair and remodels, additions, and replacements to existing homes, as well as countertop demand for new residential construction (includes both single-family and multifamily).

Segment

Quarterly Unit Installed Volumes are available for New Construction and Repair and Remodel end market exposures. Please talk to our building products consulting team for custom regional and material breakouts.

Materials Covered

Includes all kitchen and vanity countertop materials: solid surface, laminate, tile (porcelain or ceramic), cultured marble, quartz / engineered stone, solid wood, granite, marble, slate, other natural stone, and other

Updated April 2024

Current Conditions

  • Stronger housing starts in late 2023 into 2024 will lead to stronger countertop installations later in 2024 as countertops are installed toward the end of the construction process.

Demand Outlook

  • 115 million linear feet installed in 2024 (-1% YOY).
  • We expect 2024 single-family housing starts to increase +2% YOY, driving demand for countertops. Offsetting this is a significant contraction in multifamily new construction. We expect multifamily new construction to contract -28% YOY due to completed multifamily units outpacing demand and a higher cost of capital to fund multifamily projects.
  • Rate buydowns and quick-move-in homes supported 2023 new home sales. While builders are starting more homes per community in early 2024, significant land constraints are limiting the expansion of active communities, according to our monthly Builder Survey.
  • Our 2023 US Residential Architecture and Design Survey, conducted by our New Home Trends Institute, revealed a significant share of residential designers plan to increase the size of kitchens, leading to more countertop surface area per home.
  • Our 1Q24 US Remodeling Index, in partnership with Qualified Remodeler, reveals that countertops are a product that homeowners often upgrade during remodeling projects.
  • We expect demand from deferred kitchen and bath discretionary R&R projects to increase in late 2024 due to homeowners undertaking big-ticket kitchen and bath remodeling projects (because of wealth effects and expected easing interest rates reducing the cost of accessing high home equity levels).
  • Our quarterly Kitchen and Bath Market Index (KBMI) Survey, in partnership with the National Kitchen and Bath Association, revealed a shift toward larger projects and higher-grade/cost product options, particularly for consumers choosing to upgrade in place. The spread between the KBMI Current and Near-term indices has widened, signaling an impending expansion in demand.
Forecasts through 2027 are available exclusively to building products research members. Click here to learn more.

About our partner

Home Innovation Logo-Horizontal-Color-01

Home Innovation Research Labs

Home Innovation Research Labs (formerly the NAHB Research Center) is a full-service research, testing, and consulting firm determined to improve the quality, durability, affordability, and environmental performance of single- and multifamily homes and home-building products.

Reach out to our partners at Home Innovation

Ed Hudson

Director, Market Research Division at Home Innovation Research Labs

Mike Luzier

President & CEO at Home Innovation Research Labs

Building Products Demand Meter

This industry-first data product tracks current and historical US residential installed product volumes (final demand) for major building product categories.

Members can access market sizes for 18 building product categories.

Track US residential installed product volume for 18 unique building product categories: lumber, concrete, drywall, paint, bathroom fixtures, lighting, and more.

Three-year forecast of levels and growth rates are available annually and quarterly.

History of changes in product volume back to 2000 for each building product category

Also available in standardized format, enabling easy comparisons of product installation volumes relative to each category’s historical range

Based on JBREC proprietary forecasts and extensive, industry-leading survey data from Home Innovation Research Labs

Questions about our Building Products Demand Meter?

Custom Building Products Consulting Services

Building Products Consulting

Structural Building Materials, Interior Fixtures, Prefab Construction, Commercial Construction

Our team is comprised of industry experts with diverse sector and functional experience. We partner across organizations to provide custom consulting reports to aid organic and inorganic investment decisions, strategic planning, and marketing.

Capabilities

Through our custom consulting you can receive accurate answers to questions like these for countertops:

What is the market share of various countertop materials, and are material shifts expected?

How is silicosis impacting countertop material selection?

What styles and colors are popular with homeowners?

How are changing kitchen and bathroom sizes impacting overall countertop volumes?

Building Products Demand Meter Categories

We measure installed residential market volumes across 18 major building product categories.

Forecasts through 2027 are available to clients. Click on each product category to peek at our 2024 forecasts.

Contact us to maximize your opportunities in the housing market.

If you have any questions about our services, or if you would like to speak to one of our experts about how we can help your business, please contact Client Relations at clientservices@jbrec.com.