Current Market Share and Reliable Forecasts through 2027

We partnered with Home Innovation Research Labs to produce what we believe is the best and most current data and forecast to help US building products companies size their market and track their growth rates relative to the addressable market.

Home Innovation Research Labs has been surveying home builders and households for decades. Their most recent detailed survey included responses from ~1,300 home builders who build ~32,000 homes per year, and ~75,000 households, more than half of whom had done a repair or remodel project in the last year.

The Building Products Demand Meter Forecasts measure installed residential market volumes across 18 major building product categories—from dimensional lumber and siding to HVAC and interior paint—through 2027.

Updated April 2024

Cabinets

US residential cabinets demand is projected to be 51.8 million units installed in 2024, an increase of +1% by volume YOY.

Cabinets: Estimated Residential End Market Shares

New Construction

50%

Repair and Remodel

50%

Sources: John Burns Research and Consulting, LLC; Home Innovation Research Labs

Building Products Demand Meter Forecast: Cabinets uses JBREC’s proprietary market research to help you understand both market changes and total installed volume on an annual and quarterly basis. Clients can access data on cabinet repair and remodels, additions, and replacements to existing homes, as well as cabinet demand for new residential construction (includes both single-family and multifamily).

Segment

Quarterly Unit Installed Volumes are available for New Construction and Repair and Remodel end market exposures. Please talk to our building products consulting team for custom regional and material breakouts.

Materials Covered

Includes all kitchen, vanity, and other cabinets (garage room, laundry, etc.)

Updated April 2024

Current Conditions

  • Stronger housing starts in late 2023 into 2024 will lead to stronger cabinet installations later in 2024, as cabinets are installed toward the end of the construction process.
  • Weak demand from R&R projects due to declines in big-ticket remodeling projects from elevated interest rates. Our 1Q24 US Remodeling Index, in partnership with Qualified Remodeler, revealed kitchen and bath projects are smaller in scope due to elevated interest rates.
  • Cabinet imports from overseas are leading to softer demand for domestically produced cabinets.

Demand Outlook

  • 51.8 million units installed in 2024 (+1% YOY)
  • We expect 2024 single-family housing starts to increase +2%, driving demand for cabinets. Offsetting this is a significant decline in multifamily new construction.
  • Our 2023 US Residential Architecture and Design Survey, conducted by our New Home Trends Institute, revealed that a significant share of residential designers plan to increase the size of kitchens, leading to more cabinets per home (despite the trend toward smaller home sizes). 
  • We expect demand from deferred discretionary kitchen & bath renovation projects to increase in late 2024 (because of lower interest rates reducing the cost of accessing high home equity levels).
  • Cabinets trade-downs are increasingly common due to affordability constraints. Our 1Q24 US Remodeler Index in partnership with Qualified Remodeler cited cabinets as the product category experiencing the most trade-downs.
  • Our 1Q24 Kitchen and Bath Market Index (KBMI) Survey, in partnership with the National Kitchen and Bath Association, indicates that domestic custom cabinet shops, catering to wealthier customers, are expecting solid revenue growth in 2024, with labor shortages potentially causing delays.
Forecasts through 2027 are available exclusively to building products research members. Click here to learn more.

About our partner

Home Innovation Logo-Horizontal-Color-01

Home Innovation Research Labs

Home Innovation Research Labs (formerly the NAHB Research Center) is a full-service research, testing, and consulting firm determined to improve the quality, durability, affordability, and environmental performance of single- and multifamily homes and home-building products.

Reach out to our partners at Home Innovation

Ed Hudson

Director, Market Research Division at Home Innovation Research Labs

Mike Luzier

President & CEO at Home Innovation Research Labs

Building Products Demand Meter

This industry-first data product tracks current and historical US residential installed product volumes (final demand) for major building product categories.

Members can access market sizes for 18 building product categories.

Track US residential installed product volume for 18 unique building product categories: lumber, concrete, drywall, paint, bathroom fixtures, lighting, and more.

Three-year forecast of levels and growth rates are available annually and quarterly.

History of changes in product volume back to 2000 for each building product category

Also available in standardized format, enabling easy comparisons of product installation volumes relative to each category’s historical range

Based on JBREC proprietary forecasts and extensive, industry-leading survey data from Home Innovation Research Labs

Questions about our Building Products Demand Meter?

Custom Building Products Consulting Services

Building Products Consulting

Structural Building Materials, Interior Fixtures, Prefab Construction, Commercial Construction

Our team is comprised of industry experts with diverse sector and functional experience. We partner across organizations to provide custom consulting reports to aid organic and inorganic investment decisions, strategic planning, and marketing.

Capabilities

Through our custom consulting you can receive accurate answers to questions like these for cabinets:

How are kitchen sizes impacting cabinets installed in new homes?

What colors and wood species are popular with homeowners?

How are cabinet imports impacting the US cabinet market?

How are cabinet hardware preferences changing?

Building Products Demand Meter Categories

We measure installed residential market volumes across 18 major building product categories.

Forecasts through 2027 are available to clients. Click on each product category to peek at our 2024 forecasts.

Contact us to maximize your opportunities in the housing market.

If you have any questions about our services, or if you would like to speak to one of our experts about how we can help your business, please contact Client Relations at clientservices@jbrec.com.