PodcastLand Development

Where Has All the Land Gone?

Shelly Chen
Dean Wehrli

Shelly Chen

Dean Wehrli

April 13, 2021

Today’s housing market is piping hot, and people are asking two big questions: “Where can I buy more land?” and “How can we make more developable land?” Before you resort to creating islands off the coast of California, give this week’s New Home Insights podcast a listen. In this podcast Greg Vogel, founder and CEO of Land Advisors, gives us a rundown on today’s hottest topics related to land. Below are some key takeaways.

Featured guest

Greg Vogel, Founder and CEO, Land Advisors Organization

Yesterday's Market

  • Despite solid to strong market conditions, the 2010s did not see a land-buying spree, since high and rising horizontal and vertical development costs put a lid on land prices.
 
  • Absorption rates and pricing power also played a part in restricting the land market.

Today's Market

  • Heightened sales paces and tremendous price appreciation have removed that lid.
 
  • All major markets are hot, hot, hot.
 
  • Larger land takedowns are more common to (1) maintain a steady stream of available lots and (2) tap into land value appreciation during hold periods.
 
  • Builders are generally more willing to buy raw land.
 
  • Lot to home price ratios are up everywhere by about 20% (four percentage points), and this is true across all price niches.

Tomorrow's Market

  • Competition for land between for-sale and build-to-rent land buyers will increase significantly.

  • Major infrastructure needs to be done to ensure continued supply of developable land. Support from state and federal governments is needed to help make this happen.

  • Use of structured financing and partnerships with major investors will increase.

Want to Subscribe to the New Home Insights Podcast?

The New Home Insights Podcast is available on all major podcast platforms. Click any of the platforms below to subscribe.

Building Market Intelligence™

Every week, we deliver analysis to over 40,000 subscribers with our Building Market Intelligence™ newsletter. Subscribe to our weekly BMI newsletters to stay current on pressing topics in the housing industry.

About The Author

Shelly Chen
Shelly Chen
Research Analyst II, For-Sale
Shelly is responsible for working on various research projects as it relates to residential for-sale, including supporting our Burns Home Builder Analysis and Forecast report.
Dean Wehrli
Dean Wehrli
Principal
Dean helps housing sector clients figure out not just what might work and what might not, but why.

Contact Us

If you have any questions about our services or if you would like to speak to one of our experts about we can help your business, please contact Client Relations at clientservices@jbrec.com.

Products and Services Mentioned

green check icon

Burns Residential Land Survey

Our quarterly residential land survey presents data and sentiment from the top residential land brokers in numerous metros across the country.
green check icon

Research Membership

Our research services enable our clients to gauge housing market conditions and better align their business and strategic investments in the housing industry. We provide a thoughtful and unique holistic approach of both quantitative and qualitative analysis to help clients make informed housing investment decisions.
green check icon

Real Estate Consulting

Our experienced team of consultants helps clients make sound housing investment decisions. We thrive on their success and work with many clients over multiple years and numerous projects.

Latest Insights

Building Products Demand Forecast:  A Tale of Two End Markets
John Burns Research and Consulting and Home Innovation Research Labs Announce Building Products Demand Forecasts through 2026
Falling Mortgage Rates Lift Home Sales