San Antonio, Phoenix, and Charlotte have all seen a 5%+ increase in new home competition in the last year, while Austin, Houston, and Washington, DC, have all seen -4%+ reductions in competition.
As we enter the spring selling season, we are monitoring new home inventory shifts along with today’s housing demand and affordability. Rising competition may lead more builders to offer higher incentives, mortgage rate buydowns, and price cuts to boost sales; less competition or a strengthening market would have the opposite effect.
Every quarter we geocode actively selling public/private builder communities (community counts) in ~380 MSAs for 1,200+ home builders across the country to help our clients understand who’s building and where these new homes are getting built and sold. This includes coming soon communities, so we have a good sense of future supply. Here is what the Houston map looks like:
For much of 2020 through early 2022, builders were on a land-buying spree to keep up with the surge in housing demand and faster-than-expected closeout of communities. Fortunately for them, they ramped up their land holdings in a way that protects them in the event of a downturn. Today, land growth plans are being reworked, with builders often renegotiating terms and even dropping land deals and walking away from deposits on lots that no longer make financial sense.
Community counts vary greatly by market, and we are currently tracking 14,000+ communities across the country.
- Four Texas markets make the top 10 list (Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, and Austin) with ~2,400 communities (making up over 50% of the top 10 share).
As the market continues to change, we hope to give our clients clarity on where supply is coming from and how to make the best investment decisions. To learn more about our research and consulting services, please fill out this form.
