National Housing Market Outlook

The Missing Resale Market

John Macke

September 15, 2023
Residential Housing Background

The market did not behave normally this year.

Typically, the supply of homes for sale on the market increases from February through September, then decreases. However, there was no usual spring surge in supply this year. Instead, resale listings declined during the spring.

Existing home inventory for sale fell -7% YOY to just over one million in June, near the lowest level in the last 40 years and significantly below the historical average of 2.3 million homes for sale.

Home prices have stopped falling and are rising again, according to our Burns Home Value Index™.

  • Nationally: From January through August, housing demand stabilized, resulting in relatively stable home prices. By August 2023, national resale home prices fully recovered from the declines experienced in the second half of 2022 and now exceed their April 2022 peak.
  • At the metro level: The resale market continues to improve, with resale home prices stabilizing and experiencing monthly increases in most top markets from January 2023 through August. Compared to 2022 peak levels, home prices as of August 2023 range from down -12% to up +7% across the top housing markets.

Our housing surveys, which are leading indicators of this data, tell us that prices are rising in most areas right now.

The share of agents reporting that buyers outnumber sellers has been steadily increasing throughout the first half of the year, reaching 77% in July nationally. The demand and supply imbalance has also reignited bidding wars for the limited supply of homes.

The resale market has found a floor on prices in most areas, and we expect sales to remain low due to a low inventory of homes to sell.

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About The Author

John Macke
Senior Research Analyst, For-Sale
John leads JBREC’s Southern California market coverage for the Metro Analysis and Forecast reports, produces the Regional Analysis and Forecast and Homebuilder Analysis and Forecast reports, and assists with coverage of the public homebuilder space.

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