Building ProductsFloridaSoutheast

Sunshine after the Storm

Lesley Deutch photo

Lesley Deutch

Elizabeth LaJeunesse

October 21, 2022

Hurricane Ian was the sixth hurricane to cause $20+ billion in damages in Florida in the last 40 years. We have many team members and clients who live and work in Florida. We have experienced several hurricanes and know firsthand what the aftermath can bring. Here are some initial thoughts on the real estate impact of Hurricane Ian.

  1. Net migration to Southwest Florida will slow but not stop. Southwest Florida has ranked as one of the top destinations for net migration in the US with over 20,000 residents moving into the region in the last 4 years. While we expect some slowdown in population growth in the near term, the eastern suburbs could gain market share.

  2. Inland migration will accelerate. Just as Hurricane Andrew (a Cat 5 Hurricane in Miami) fueled growth in Broward County and the western suburbs of Miami, we expect to see strong demand for homes east of I75 over the next decade. Communities like Babcock Ranch, Big Cypress, Wellen Park, Lakewood Ranch and Ave Maria have land and homes available. We expect these inland communities to be beneficiaries of future population growth.

  3. We estimate home Repair and Remodeling (R&R) spending of $36 billion from Hurricane Ian. Our preliminary estimates suggest a figure around $36 billion for Hurricane Ian-related residential remodels and repairs over four years. The National Center for Environmental Information expects total costs related to Hurricane Ian to exceed $50 billion, and preliminary estimates from Moody’s RMS suggest that Ian will be costliest hurricane since 1980 (Figure 1).
  1. Labor and materials will be in short supply for some time. We expect the pace of the rebuilding effort to be constrained by existing labor and material shortages with most of this spending taking place in 2023 and 2024, and the new home industry to be negatively impacted by labor and materials transitioning toward the hurricane cleanup.

  2. Florida’s major population centers were less impacted. Fort Myers, Port Charlotte, select submarkets of Orlando and Daytona Beach all saw flooding and damage, but the major population centers—Tampa, South Florida, and Orlando—were relatively unscathed.

  3. New homes held up better. While hundreds of thousands of homes were impacted by devastating hurricane force winds, stronger building codes for new construction undoubtedly mitigated Ian’s impact in areas with Category 1 force winds. On average, homes built in the 1990s require 20% less investment to rehabilitate following a major wind event compared to those built in the 1970s and 1980s, and homes built in the 2000’s or later require 25% less investment (Figure 2).

Floridians are resilient. History shows that the people of this state can and will rebuild and the new homes will be stronger and better equipped to handle the wind and rain. Southwest Florida will be welcoming new residents again soon to enjoy their beautiful beaches, great restaurants, and natural surroundings. We expect the region to continue its rapid expansion.

Building Market Intelligence™

Every week, we deliver analysis to over 40,000 subscribers with our Building Market Intelligence™ newsletter. Subscribe to our weekly BMI newsletters to stay current on pressing topics in the housing industry.

About The Author

Lesley Deutch photo
Lesley Deutch
Managing Principal
Lesley has more than 25 years of experience consulting with executives in the finance and real estate industries throughout North America. She works across a wide spectrum of industries including apartments, for-sale housing, high-rise development, urban projects, single-family rental, building products, and commercial developments.
Elizabeth LaJeunesse
Senior Manager, Building Products Research
Elizabeth is responsible for participating in the preparation of consulting assignments and research projects related to Building Products, including compilation and analysis of market data, preparation of market reports, and custom survey development.

Contact Us

If you have any questions about our services or if you would like to speak to one of our experts about we can help your business, please contact Client Relations at clientservices@jbrec.com.

Products and Services Mentioned

green check icon

Building Products Consulting

Our building products team is comprised of industry experts with diverse sector and functional experience. We partner across organizations to provide custom consulting reports to aid organic and inorganic investment decisions, strategic planning, and marketing.
green check icon

Burns Regional Analysis and Forecast

A report that provides the most current and accurate information for major housing and economic conditions and forecasts across the 10 regions and top MSAs.
green check icon

Building Products Package

Our research subscription provides unparalleled expertise and a unique specialized perspective on new construction and remodeling, backed with exceptional data, for business planning and investor relation support.

Latest Insights

Charting a 22-year roller coaster of investor activity
From Boomers to Zoomers: Housing Priorities by Generation
Dear Consultant: How do we address the shortage of skilled trades workers?