- Moderating Job Growth: We are forecasting significant moderation in job growth across most markets. A spike in retirees will result in fewer working-age adults, leading to strong retiree demand at the same time as slower employment growth. Watch for moderate economic growth in Fort Myers, Jacksonville, Naples, West Palm Beach and Miami.
- Tight Margins: Rising construction costs, partially due to the aforementioned lack of labor, and slower home price appreciation will mean tighter margins. While some land sellers will agree with lower buyer expectations, we expect land market transactions will slow in 2016.
- Slowing Price Appreciation: We think rapid price appreciation in local markets will be rare, so we are projecting modestly positive new home price appreciation in Orlando and Miami, and appreciation rates that are nearly half the pace of 2015 in most other Florida markets.
- Retiree Demand: Retirees and second-home buyers will strengthen the sales velocity in age-restricted and age-targeted communities. Look for new age-restricted and age-targeted communities by Del Webb (Sarasota and Fort Myers), K. Hovnanian (Orlando and Fort Lauderdale), David Weekley (Tampa), and Lennar (Sarasota and Fort Myers). Thinking further out, we are excited about some large land parcels potentially becoming “hot” retirement destinations.
We will continue to track all of Florida’s housing markets through 2016. For more information please contact us by filling out this form.