PodcastNational Housing Market Outlook

Successful Pivots as the Housing Market Runs Out of Steam

Dean Wehrli
John Burns photo

Dean Wehrli

John Burns

June 19, 2019

In this podcast, I explain why I believe new home sales and construction have “run out of steam,” at levels many deem to be too low. What’s different this time from prior cycles includes:

  • Banks – Two banking regulation laws (Dodd-Frank and FIRREA) that have held mortgage lending and construction lending, respectively, in check

  • Municipalities – Local regulations, which have significantly reduced market rate affordable housing in good locations

  • New business models – An institutional class single-family rental industry whose company values already rival the largest home builders in the country, as well as the proven viability of supplemental rental income thanks to Airbnb

  • Societal aspirations – A shift to living closer to work and a willingness to make compromises to do so

Featured guest

John Burns, CEO, John Burns Research and Consulting

This episode features several successful pivots that our clients have made, including:

  • Brookfield’s mall redevelopment plans
 
  • Kohler’s smart home initiatives
 
  • Lennar’s mind shift to a tech company that builds homes, including early investments in disruptors like Opendoor, partnerships with Amazon, and their hiring of newly formed offsite construction companies
 
  • Clayton’s entry into the production home building world
 
  • Tricon’s pivot to add rental housing investments to their for-sale portfolio
 

I also highlight some of the reasons various markets are behaving very differently.

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About The Author

Dean Wehrli
Dean Wehrli
Principal
Dean helps housing sector clients figure out not just what might work and what might not, but why.
John Burns photo
John Burns
Chief Executive Officer
As CEO, John grows, leads, and supports a team of passionate, articulate, likable, and smart experts. Together, we solve today so our clients can navigate to tomorrow.

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Issues, interviews, and insights into the U.S. housing market. Monthly takes on what’s happening in the housing market today, and what might be happening tomorrow.
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Our research services enable our clients to gauge housing market conditions and better align their business and strategic investments in the housing industry. We provide a thoughtful and unique holistic approach of both quantitative and qualitative analysis to help clients make informed housing investment decisions.
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