Northern California

SF Bay Area All About Location

Dean_Wehrli_web

Dean Wehrli

July 19, 2011
The core parts of the Bay Area are outperforming more outlying areas.
Where are the bright spots? The healthiest housing markets within the Bay Area can roughly be defined by a steep inward facing arc from San Francisco, down along the Peninsula, through its heart in greater San Jose, and then northeastward into the Interstate 580 / 680 corridors centering on Dublin. Relatively outlying areas like the Highway 4 corridor in northern Contra Costa County or the Interstate 80 corridor in Solano County still generally struggle. Further outlying areas – Sonoma, Napa, Monterey, Santa Cruz – have virtually ceased to have active new home markets, though Sonoma County has recently seen an infusion of new communities.
  • San Jose – Perhaps the strongest submarket in the Bay Area is Greater San Jose. Even here, though, the market is bifurcated. New home projects at the entry-level – townhomes priced in the $400,000s and $500,000s – can usually sell a solid three homes a month, and high-end single-family home communities in choice locations also draw tremendous interest. However, everything in between is more hit-or-miss. The tech industry is often the driver of both markets. At the lower end, the programmers and software workers; at the top, the executives and entrepreneurs.
  • Dublin – Another hot submarket is Dublin along Interstate 580. Here small-lot and slightly less-than-small-lot detached homes, priced mainly in the $700,000s, can at least match those three home sales per month of the townhomes in San Jose and Sunnyvale. Let’s keep in mind that builders of homes for less than half that price in the Central Valley or Sacramento would die for that sales pace. There is likely room for comparatively low-priced attached options in the Dublin market, but this is a niche that remains unfilled (for now).
Core Strength: These core counties have had less price reduction and the recovery has been far stronger than in the periphery. The table below shows these facts at a glance. Note how current pricing in core counties declined about 17% less than outlying counties, though core counties tend to have higher absolute prices.
We expect to see this trend continue into the near future. This is because the main driver of demand – jobs – gravitates to the core, and consumers prefer to live there as well. While current year-over-year changes are mixed throughout the region, job growth projections more clearly favor core locations.
Back in the boom, three sales per month would have gotten someone fired. In “normal market” periods, four per month was seen as the standard of success. These days, while three sales per month and stable prices are nothing to sing about, it will keep you going.

Dean Wehrli is our Northern California based Consulting Senior Manager and is helping our clients succeed in a tumultuous market. Email Dean with your questions or comments.

This is the most current available data for all variables and markets.
Permits Statistics
Employment Statistics
Affordability
12-
12-
Total
NF Payroll Employment
State Metro Area*
Month S. Fam. Permits
Month Total Permits
Permits / Peak Permits
1-Yr Growth
1-Yr Growth Rate
Unemp Rate
Median Home Price
Housing Costs / Income
JBREC Afford. Index
Alabama
Anniston-Oxford 86 89 19% (200) (0.4%) 9.6% $87,298 21% 1.8
Auburn-Opelika 472 642 29% 1,300 2.5% 8.1% $130,008 33% 2.5
Birmingham 1,397 2,933 38% (4,500) (0.9%) 8.8% $140,892 27% 2.2
Decatur 135 155 16% (400) (0.7%) 9.3% $100,409 23% 3.9
Dothan 303 311 42% (1,400) (2.4%) 8.7% $90,994 22% 1.8
Florence 145 201 26% 1,000 1.8% 8.5% $97,835 21% 0.4
Gadsden 70 78 20% (500) (1.4%) 9.6% $85,962 18% 0.0
Huntsville 2,194 2,222 45% (200) (0.1%) 7.9% $126,859 20% 0.2
Mobile 697 984 35% 200 0.1% 10.6% $111,998 24% 0.4
Montgomery 395 662 25% (2,600) (1.5%) 9.4% $125,537 25% 2.2
Tuscaloosa 280 444 17% (900) (1.0%) 9.3% $120,785 26% 0.6
Alaska
Anchorage 399 547 6% 1,300 0.8% 6.7% $186,171 21% 0.0
Fairbanks 36 40 5% (100) (0.3%) 6.5% $144,817 17% 0.1
Arizona
Flagstaff 165 240 18% 2,200 3.6% 7.2% $240,100 34% 1.5
Phoenix 6,477 7,316 11% 6,100 0.4% 8.0% $120,000 17% 0.1
Prescott 251 301 7% (600) (1.1%) 9.3% $123,313 23% 0.0
Tucson 1,439 1,962 15% 1,200 0.3% 7.8% $142,500 25% 0.0
Yuma 375 375 14% (1,000) (2.0%) 27.9% $127,450 24% 1.7
Arkansas
Fayetteville 1,019 1,162 15% 2,500 1.2% 6.2% $101,781 17% 0.0
Fort Smith 473 591 45% 600 0.5% 7.7% $79,458 16% 0.0
Hot Springs 35 35 9% 1,200 3.2% 8.0% $112,422 22% 0.0
Jonesboro 345 637 65% (300) (0.6%) 7.4% $80,749 16% 0.2
Little Rock 1,616 3,938 69% 200 0.1% 7.0% $131,036 22% 2.7
Pine Bluff 35 63 15% (1,400) (3.7%) 10.0% $65,319 15% 0.8
California
Bakersfield 1,018 1,260 14% (2,000) (0.9%) 15.0% $124,000 19% 0.6
Chico 153 440 22% 700 1.0% 12.9% $173,000 30% 1.2
El Centro 155 207 9% 0 0.0% 27.7% $125,000 23% 1.4
Fresno 1,914 2,015 27% (200) (0.1%) 16.0% $135,000 22% 0.1
Hanford 174 178 13% 400 1.1% 15.2% $132,000 23% 2.7
Los Angeles (D) 2,398 8,555 12% (10,600) (0.3%) 11.9% $330,000 44% 1.8
Madera 121 205 9% (400) (1.2%) 14.5% $125,000 21% 0.0
Merced 96 98 3% 900 1.6% 17.8% $107,500 21% 0.6
Modesto 115 248 4% (300) (0.2%) 16.7% $135,000 20% 0.2
Monterey 118 183 7% (1,400) (1.1%) 10.9% $250,000 31% 0.8
Napa 117 141 14% (600) (1.0%) 8.7% $338,000 36% 1.5
Oakland (D) 1,483 2,971 13% (9,300) (1.0%) 10.2% $328,000 34% 1.8
Orange County (D) 2,091 4,765 19% 1,900 0.1% 8.5% $501,000 52% 4.8
Redding 141 216 9% (1,000) (1.7%) 14.7% $148,500 25% 0.3
Riverside-San Bernardino 4,410 5,327 9% (16,900) (1.5%) 13.2% $175,000 25% 1.0
Sacramento 1,855 2,312 10% (12,700) (1.6%) 11.7% $182,500 24% 0.0
San Diego 2,268 4,435 10% 11,200 0.9% 9.6% $370,000 46% 3.5
San Francisco (D) 357 1,520 23% (3,500) (0.4%) 8.1% $700,000 66% 3.5
San Jose 876 3,644 36% 9,400 1.1% 9.9% $561,500 49% 4.0
San Luis Obispo 285 439 12% 1,400 1.4% 9.0% $369,000 49% 3.6
Santa Barbara 204 311 11% 200 0.1% 8.1% $295,000 37% 0.9
Santa Cruz 100 106 8% 1,900 2.2% 11.4% $422,000 52% 1.7
Santa Rosa 408 503 9% 2,000 1.2% 9.4% $349,000 41% 1.8
Stockton 817 981 14% (4,100) (2.2%) 16.2% $155,000 22% 0.1
Vallejo-Fairfield 442 442 7% (2,400) (2.0%) 11.3% $189,000 21% 0.1
Ventura 223 563 8% 300 0.1% 9.5% $411,000 44% 4.2
Visalia-Porterville 908 1,100 31% (1,600) (1.5%) 15.1% $118,000 23% 0.5
Yuba-Sutter 156 156 5% (600) (1.6%) 19.0% $135,000 22% 0.2
Colorado
Boulder 291 380 7% 1,800 1.1% 6.3% $318,500 41% 5.3
Colorado Springs 1,528 1,839 17% (4,100) (1.7%) 9.3% $178,000 26% 2.1
Denver 3,366 5,147 18% (400) 0.0% 8.5% $223,200 30% 4.7
Fort Collins 539 980 27% 1,600 1.2% 6.6% $219,000 31% 3.9
Grand Junction 305 321 16% (2,800) (4.7%) 9.9% $127,999 20% 0.0
Greeley 628 708 16% 1,100 1.4% 9.3% $160,000 23% 1.3
Pueblo 170 178 12% 0 0.0% 10.1% $79,181 17% 0.2
Connecticut
Bridgeport 561 962 18% 3,100 0.8% 8.5% $366,982 34% 0.0
Hartford 882 1,077 10% 2,800 0.5% 9.1% $227,806 25% 0.2
New Haven 382 484 7% (1,300) (0.5%) 9.5% $222,255 26% 0.1
Norwich 252 258 9% (2,600) (2.0%) 9.0% $191,506 22% 0.3
Delaware
Dover 629 782 36% (300) (0.5%) 7.4% $178,883 29% 4.5
Wilmington (D) 941 1,081 17% (3,900) (1.2%) 8.0% $199,950 27% 2.1
District of Columbia
Washington D.C. (D) 7,552 11,390 30% (2,900) (0.1%) 5.8% $303,312 27% 2.2
Florida
Daytona Beach 534 1,033 13% 1,100 0.7% 10.5% $90,000 15% 0.0
Fort Lauderdale (D) 889 1,131 6% 3,600 0.5% 9.0% $149,000 21% 0.0
Fort Myers 1,170 1,243 4% (3,600) (1.8%) 10.8% $101,900 16% 1.0
Fort Walton Beach 617 617 17% 1,300 1.6% 6.9% $177,673 26% 2.3
Gainesville 317 442 13% 500 0.4% 7.3% $155,324 28% 0.2
Jacksonville 2,915 3,175 13% 1,200 0.2% 9.7% $137,000 19% 0.9
Lakeland 942 948 7% (2,300) (1.2%) 10.8% $98,000 16% 0.5
Melbourne 808 1,047 11% (6,800) (3.4%) 10.8% $110,000 17% 1.1
Miami (D) 931 3,311 13% 3,700 0.4% 13.7% $166,000 28% 0.9
Naples 805 1,081 13% (800) (0.7%) 9.9% $239,000 32% 2.7
Ocala 381 381 5% (1,700) (1.8%) 11.9% $90,000 16% 0.8
Orlando 3,830 5,324 15% 6,600 0.7% 9.9% $118,000 17% 0.0
Panama City 209 339 6% 400 0.5% 9.4% $149,802 23% 0.2
Pensacola 1,145 1,153 18% 100 0.1% 9.5% $133,861 20% 0.0
Port St. Lucie 376 431 4% (1,600) (1.3%) 11.7% $112,000 17% 0.5
Punta Gorda 319 445 10% (400) (1.0%) 10.4% $110,000 20% 1.6
Sarasota 1,623 2,192 15% (2,800) (1.1%) 10.3% $144,950 22% 1.2
Tallahassee 533 570 13% 600 0.4% 7.7% $138,344 24% 0.6
Tampa 4,235 6,103 16% 4,700 0.4% 10.5% $110,000 17% 0.5
Vero Beach 324 324 8% 0 0.0% 12.5% $127,000 21% 1.9
West Palm Beach (D) 1,291 1,529 7% 200 0.0% 10.2% $195,000 27% 1.9
Georgia
Albany 162 229 18% 1,600 2.6% 10.0% $88,516 18% 0.0
Athens 223 223 10% 1,000 1.3% 7.2% $123,144 25% 0.0
Atlanta 5,846 7,196 10% (30,000) (1.3%) 9.7% $105,972 15% 0.0
Augusta 2,215 2,237 41% (3,700) (1.7%) 8.7% $109,004 19% 0.0
Brunswick 381 381 30% 200 0.5% 9.8% $132,441 25% 1.4
Columbus 916 1,132 50% (1,300) (1.1%) 9.1% $102,235 21% 0.3
Dalton 94 94 9% 100 0.1% 11.1% $96,193 20% 0.4
Gainesville 160 160 6% 300 0.4% 7.9% $122,354 20% 0.0
Hinesville 306 306 35% (300) (1.5%) 8.7% $95,814 18% 0.0
Macon 292 312 17% 0 0.0% 10.0% $93,080 18% 0.0
Rome 42 119 17% (300) (0.8%) 10.5% $90,907 19% 0.0
Savannah 1,016 1,295 27% (900) (0.6%) 8.5% $127,976 22% 0.6
Valdosta 452 939 64% (1,100) (2.1%) 8.7% $102,451 22% 0.0
Warner Robins 622 622 29% 100 0.2% 7.7% $97,100 16% 0.6
Hawaii
Honolulu 814 1,278 26% 4,400 1.0% 4.9% $574,623 71% 5.0
Idaho
Boise City 1,345 1,431 12% 300 0.1% 8.8% $133,219 20% 0.6
Coeur D'Alene 402 567 21% (100) (0.2%) 10.2% $124,459 18% 0.0
Idaho Falls 269 273 14% (200) (0.4%) 6.7% $92,093 14% 0.0
Lewiston 71 75 19% (400) (1.5%) 6.9% $121,687 20% 0.0
Pocatello 109 109 16% 0 0.0% 7.8% $92,148 14% 0.0
Illinois
Bloomington 278 471 28% (100) (0.1%) 5.9% $155,278 21% 0.6
Champaign-Urbana 215 569 26% (3,200) (2.8%) 6.9% $138,033 25% 2.2
Chicago (D) 2,634 4,552 10% 19,100 0.5% 9.8% $175,000 23% 0.5
Danville 5 8 4% 200 0.7% 8.8% $53,921 13% 1.1
Decatur 57 57 10% (900) (1.7%) 8.9% $89,825 15% 0.9
Kankakee-Bradley 70 78 9% 2,100 4.9% 9.9% $114,296 17% 0.9
Lake-Kenosha (D) 512 1,035 16% 2,800 0.7% 8.0% $205,489 24% 0.0
Peoria 502 541 28% 5,300 3.0% 7.2% $112,130 17% 0.7
Rockford 231 276 11% 200 0.1% 10.7% $97,838 17% 3.1
Springfield 302 408 26% 100 0.1% 6.2% $120,188 17% 0.0
Indiana
Anderson 69 69 9% (1,700) (4.1%) 9.6% $77,609 15% 0.0
Bloomington 182 294 24% (3,800) (4.6%) 6.9% $124,379 27% 1.6
Columbus 129 129 21% 800 1.9% 7.3% $118,079 19% 0.3
Elkhart-Goshen 166 226 14% 1,700 1.6% 10.1% $98,685 19% 1.2
Evansville 469 560 26% 700 0.4% 7.2% $91,220 15% 0.0
Fort Wayne 750 782 21% 4,200 2.1% 8.1% $93,529 15% 0.7
Gary (D) 776 931 20% (5,300) (2.0%) 8.5% $114,099 19% 1.8
Indianapolis 3,488 5,237 31% (8,800) (1.0%) 7.8% $118,957 19% 2.4
Kokomo 23 23 3% 1,000 2.5% 9.5% $78,704 12% 0.0
Lafayette 446 506 28% 1,400 1.5% 7.2% $105,398 20% 0.0
Michigan City 126 198 33% (400) (0.9%) 9.4% $106,172 18% 0.0
Muncie 57 69 12% (300) (0.6%) 9.0% $71,961 16% 0.0
South Bend 226 388 20% 600 0.5% 9.2% $79,042 14% 0.8
Terre Haute 127 329 48% (900) (1.3%) 9.6% $74,985 15% 0.0
Iowa
Ames 93 322 34% (1,600) (3.3%) 4.4% $129,304 20% 0.0
Cedar Rapids 707 839 41% 2,300 1.7% 5.6% $136,132 19% 0.0
Davenport 407 731 48% 2,600 1.4% 6.6% $102,094 15% 0.0
Des Moines 2,040 2,553 41% (3,400) (1.1%) 5.8% $143,749 19% 0.0
Dubuque 236 381 44% 700 1.2% 5.1% $115,907 18% 0.0
Iowa City 473 625 37% (500) (0.5%) 4.2% $148,661 23% 0.0
Sioux City 197 257 22% (300) (0.4%) 5.5% $89,051 14% 0.0
Waterloo 386 388 46% 700 0.8% 5.5% $104,456 17% 2.5
Kansas
Lawrence 160 330 17% (100) (0.2%) 5.7% $139,480 25% 1.2
Topeka 346 356 26% (2,200) (2.0%) 6.6% $102,694 17% 1.1
Wichita 871 1,092 24% (500) (0.2%) 7.6% $111,196 18% 1.4
Kentucky
Bowling Green 339 575 42% (500) (0.8%) 8.0% $108,668 18% 0.0
Elizabethtown 512 1,021 77% 2,900 6.3% 8.1% $112,240 17% 0.0
Lexington 990 1,192 23% 1,500 0.6% 7.8% $139,972 21% 0.1
Louisville 1,789 2,459 28% 1,800 0.3% 9.5% $131,035 20% 0.0
Owensboro 256 316 29% 700 1.4% 8.3% $86,263 14% 0.0
Louisiana
Alexandria 296 348 37% 1,400 2.2% 7.7% $93,096 15% 0.0
Baton Rouge 2,675 3,055 34% (900) (0.2%) 8.4% $164,586 23% 0.0
Houma 382 388 33% 2,400 2.6% 5.9% $115,073 17% 0.2
Lafayette 731 802 16% (100) (0.1%) 6.4% $127,085 17% 0.0
Lake Charles 797 1,232 82% 1,900 2.1% 7.2% $106,995 16% 0.0
Monroe 333 471 39% (900) (1.2%) 8.5% $97,450 17% 0.0
New Orleans 1,972 2,356 18% 4,900 0.9% 8.0% $156,267 23% 0.3
Shreveport 1,082 1,328 43% 4,800 2.7% 7.3% $157,024 24% 1.7
Maine
Bangor 215 227 23% (1,000) (1.6%) 7.4% $116,631 22% 0.5
Lewiston-Auburn 122 154 18% (700) (1.5%) 7.7% $121,433 24% 1.1
Portland 1,063 1,141 20% (1,600) (0.8%) 6.2% $209,188 29% 1.4
Maryland
Baltimore 3,480 4,934 25% (11,800) (0.9%) 7.3% $240,000 29% 4.3
Bethesda (D) 1,647 3,352 27% 5,000 0.9% 5.3% $431,250 38% 6.0
Cumberland 102 168 41% 200 0.5% 8.3% $85,941 18% 0.6
Hagerstown 546 550 13% (900) (0.9%) 9.3% $120,923 19% 0.0
Salisbury 150 156 12% (100) (0.2%) 8.4% $128,366 24% 0.0
Massachusetts
Barnstable Town 365 407 8% (200) (0.2%) 7.7% $307,125 38% 0.5
Boston (D) 1,081 2,779 26% 13,800 0.8% 6.3% $353,966 37% 2.1
Cambridge (D) 1,291 2,114 28% 21,500 0.9% 6.6% $375,490 34% 0.4
Pittsfield 102 116 13% 500 1.4% 7.4% $184,482 32% 2.5
Springfield 533 577 12% 3,500 1.2% 8.4% $182,905 27% 0.8
Worcester 907 1,141 15% 3,200 1.3% 7.9% $210,754 23% 0.2
Michigan
Ann Arbor 296 602 21% 700 0.4% 6.8% $151,299 22% 0.0
Battle Creek 29 29 5% (700) (1.2%) 9.2% $76,157 16% 0.1
Bay City 18 18 4% 500 1.4% 9.6% $76,866 14% 0.0
Detroit (D) 521 713 11% (3,800) (0.5%) 12.7% $79,331 17% 0.0
Flint 70 70 2% (1,100) (0.8%) 10.9% $68,743 13% 0.0
Grand Rapids 727 732 15% 4,000 1.1% 8.3% $88,420 15% 1.0
Holland 409 453 17% 900 0.9% 8.4% $123,887 20% 0.0
Jackson 65 70 7% 200 0.4% 10.1% $83,505 14% 0.2
Kalamazoo 328 344 14% 1,300 1.0% 8.7% $104,717 21% 0.2
Lansing 373 589 19% 800 0.4% 7.9% $75,469 13% 0.3
Monroe 113 120 10% (700) (1.8%) 9.6% $107,690 16% 0.0
Muskegon 84 107 11% (600) (1.0%) 10.4% $75,569 16% 0.0
Niles 119 119 15% 400 0.7% 10.0% $111,304 22% 3.1
Saginaw 100 141 15% 1,200 1.4% 9.6% $56,709 11% 1.6
Warren (D) 2,134 2,596 13% 9,800 0.9% 10.8% $133,680 19% 0.0
Minnesota
Duluth 320 421 25% 300 0.2% 7.3% $105,179 18% 1.8
Minneapolis 3,385 4,995 18% 2,000 0.1% 6.3% $154,017 18% 0.3
Rochester 284 328 16% 1,200 1.2% 5.4% $122,279 15% 0.0
St. Cloud 259 261 13% (1,400) (1.4%) 6.3% $118,188 19% 0.0
Mississippi
Gulfport-Biloxi 1,374 1,882 34% 0 0.0% 8.8% $112,108 24% 1.8
Hattiesburg 69 81 7% (100) (0.2%) 8.7% $92,441 19% 0.0
Jackson 1,167 1,270 28% 1,600 0.6% 7.7% $137,513 28% 5.0
Pascagoula 305 342 22% (2,500) (4.2%) 10.2% $94,214 17% 0.0
Missouri
Columbia 533 814 35% 0 0.0% 6.1% $150,087 25% 0.7
Jefferson City 178 200 17% 700 0.9% 6.9% $106,347 16% 0.0
Joplin 123 175 24% 2,100 2.6% 7.7% $81,638 16% 0.0
Kansas City 2,214 2,576 14% (5,300) (0.5%) 8.4% $134,400 19% 0.0
Springfield 763 1,234 24% 100 0.1% 8.0% $113,507 23% 0.8
St. Joseph 112 153 36% 100 0.2% 7.9% $85,270 15% 0.0
St. Louis 3,554 5,041 28% 10,000 0.8% 8.6% $122,021 18% 0.0
Montana
Billings 287 397 27% 1,200 1.5% 5.2% $120,212 20% 0.2
Great Falls 114 126 39% (400) (1.1%) 6.2% $101,041 19% 0.5
Missoula 147 296 26% (2,600) (4.6%) 6.9% $160,806 33% 2.6
Nebraska
Lincoln 612 1,141 42% 3,000 1.7% 3.7% $132,126 20% 1.2
Omaha 1,983 3,059 46% 4,800 1.0% 4.6% $133,184 18% 0.0
Nevada
Carson City 10 52 7% 0 0.0% 11.5% $128,689 19% 0.0
Las Vegas 3,776 4,780 12% (5,600) (0.7%) 12.4% $123,000 17% 0.0
Reno 477 554 9% (4,100) (2.1%) 11.8% $150,000 22% 0.0
New Hampshire
Manchester 332 793 11% 300 0.3% 4.8% $217,544 22% 0.0
New Jersey
Atlantic City 388 419 11% (5,600) (4.0%) 12.9% $219,048 30% 3.9
Camden (D) 1,080 1,936 23% (10,200) (2.0%) 9.8% $191,534 20% 0.0
Edison (D) 2,516 4,195 17% (10,700) (1.1%) 8.6% $330,739 33% 4.3
Newark-Union (D) 1,397 2,458 27% (9,100) (0.9%) 9.2% $376,024 38% 3.0
Ocean City 321 455 19% (1,800) (4.2%) 11.6% $226,181 36% 4.0
Trenton 198 672 19% (4,500) (1.9%) 7.7% $244,315 25% 1.6
Vineland 182 197 27% (1,900) (3.2%) 13.1% $126,464 19% 0.0
New Mexico
Albuquerque 1,424 1,659 19% (3,700) (1.0%) 6.8% $187,255 28% 0.3
Farmington 170 170 29% 100 0.2% 6.7% $175,790 26% 0.0
Las Cruces 676 856 34% (1,700) (2.4%) 6.7% $98,204 19% 0.0
Santa Fe 95 95 7% 400 0.7% 5.2% $198,671 27% 0.0
New York
Albany 942 1,678 31% (5,300) (1.2%) 6.8% $190,935 25% 1.7
Binghamton 99 105 8% 200 0.2% 7.6% $117,218 20% 2.8
Buffalo 838 1,222 26% 2,200 0.4% 7.5% $127,705 21% 3.2
Elmira 52 60 20% 600 1.5% 7.5% $95,633 16% 1.1
Glens Falls 239 263 16% (1,900) (3.4%) 7.6% $151,527 23% 1.5
Ithaca 97 132 20% 600 0.9% 5.4% $153,744 27% 2.0
Kingston 133 309 22% (1,600) (2.6%) 7.8% $207,596 28% 1.3
Nassau (D) 1,217 1,681 15% (4,800) (0.4%) 6.7% $377,340 33% 3.7
New York (D) 1,392 12,110 29% 7,300 0.1% 8.5% $445,393 57% 3.5
Poughkeepsie 771 1,012 20% (500) (0.2%) 7.4% $208,761 23% 0.0
Rochester 931 1,432 28% 9,300 1.8% 7.1% $120,675 19% 1.5
Syracuse 755 1,015 30% (800) (0.3%) 7.7% $122,220 19% 1.0
Utica-Rome 240 272 21% (1,300) (1.0%) 7.6% $107,303 18% 0.0
North Carolina
Asheville 950 1,824 42% (200) (0.1%) 7.7% $164,251 31% 2.4
Burlington 325 400 20% 900 1.6% 9.9% $109,622 19% 0.0
Charlotte 3,825 4,678 19% 0 0.0% 10.4% $184,505 27% 4.6
Durham 1,488 1,873 29% (600) (0.2%) 7.2% $195,000 30% 1.5
Fayetteville 1,553 3,529 82% (900) (0.7%) 9.4% $109,293 21% 0.3
Goldsboro 195 251 36% (1,400) (3.2%) 8.5% $99,410 18% 0.0
Greensboro 995 1,829 29% (1,700) (0.5%) 10.2% $127,065 23% 0.3
Greenville 299 588 23% (500) (0.7%) 10.0% $103,133 22% 0.0
Hickory 360 408 17% (2,500) (1.7%) 11.9% $104,008 22% 0.0
Jacksonville 1,990 2,256 95% (600) (1.2%) 8.3% $130,094 25% 1.3
Raleigh-Cary 4,238 5,356 30% 7,800 1.6% 7.9% $201,600 25% 2.3
Rocky Mount 183 185 18% 1,200 2.0% 12.7% $90,474 20% 0.2
Wilmington 1,429 1,701 19% (1,500) (1.1%) 9.6% $237,300 42% 5.7
Winston-Salem 903 1,111 25% 800 0.4% 9.2% $120,193 20% 0.0
North Dakota
Bismarck 561 657 60% 1,500 2.4% 2.9% $160,120 18% 0.3
Fargo 575 1,415 50% 300 0.2% 3.5% $141,830 19% 0.0
Grand Forks 147 288 43% 2,400 4.5% 4.0% $121,531 19% 0.0
Ohio
Akron 734 823 21% 6,100 1.9% 8.2% $120,000 18% 2.3
Canton 267 363 23% 300 0.2% 9.3% $98,050 16% 1.6
Cincinnati 2,447 3,025 19% 3,100 0.3% 8.5% $120,744 17% 0.0
Cleveland 1,636 1,748 22% 3,500 0.4% 7.7% $101,485 16% 1.1
Columbus 2,601 4,117 24% 11,600 1.3% 7.4% $140,000 20% 1.9
Dayton 610 616 15% (600) (0.2%) 9.3% $91,651 15% 0.4
Lima 40 44 9% 1,700 3.3% 9.4% $87,010 18% 1.4
Mansfield 36 36 6% (400) (0.8%) 10.5% $83,182 15% 0.2
Sandusky 47 47 8% 3,200 8.3% 7.4% $107,989 17% 0.0
Springfield 55 59 9% 1,700 3.5% 8.8% $88,263 15% 0.0
Toledo 500 734 18% 3,600 1.2% 9.3% $73,909 13% 0.0
Youngstown 280 311 16% 2,300 1.0% 9.1% $60,579 11% 0.4
Oklahoma
Lawton 249 269 25% (1,100) (2.4%) 5.4% $95,244 12% 0.1
Oklahoma City 2,951 3,185 15% 6,800 1.2% 4.9% $135,629 20% 1.5
Tulsa 1,890 2,747 23% 1,900 0.5% 6.0% $127,411 18% 0.0
Oregon
Bend 392 398 9% (1,200) (2.0%) 11.6% $130,270 19% 0.0
Corvallis 68 201 25% 900 2.4% 5.8% $180,390 33% 3.5
Eugene 394 495 18% (800) (0.6%) 8.8% $182,656 36% 5.5
Medford 275 415 19% 500 0.7% 10.9% $130,187 21% 0.0
Portland 3,017 4,494 23% 9,500 1.0% 8.6% $218,000 30% 3.6
Salem 369 639 19% (2,400) (1.7%) 9.4% $144,480 25% 2.5
Pennsylvania
Allentown 1,201 1,418 26% 1,500 0.4% 8.4% $196,559 26% 2.4
Altoona 96 119 24% 600 1.0% 6.4% $97,135 19% 1.4
Erie 323 449 44% 2,200 1.7% 7.7% $103,088 18% 1.2
Harrisburg 1,159 1,350 36% (3,100) (1.0%) 6.9% $140,292 20% 1.5
Johnstown 88 88 24% 1,400 2.3% 8.0% $80,289 17% 1.3
Lancaster 947 1,135 31% (1,700) (0.7%) 6.4% $161,227 22% 1.4
Lebanon 214 218 26% 1,000 2.0% 6.1% $135,851 21% 1.8
Philadelphia (D) 2,679 3,891 22% 700 0.0% 7.9% $217,004 28% 4.0
Pittsburgh 3,327 3,507 50% 9,200 0.8% 6.9% $120,703 20% 1.7
Reading 345 349 16% 2,000 1.2% 7.9% $145,898 21% 3.5
Scranton 630 652 30% 2,600 1.0% 8.7% $115,470 21% 0.7
State College 317 408 37% (700) (0.9%) 5.3% $157,205 24% 0.0
Williamsport 182 190 36% 0 0.0% 7.4% $111,637 22% 2.1
York 802 1,029 33% 2,000 1.1% 7.4% $145,548 19% 0.5
Rhode Island
Providence 1,069 1,339 11% 1,100 0.2% 11.1% $220,593 32% 1.0
South Carolina
Anderson 225 363 19% 2,300 3.9% 9.8% $100,014 19% 0.0
Charleston 2,560 2,987 28% 3,200 1.1% 8.7% $211,000 34% 4.4
Columbia 2,245 2,729 34% (2,100) (0.6%) 9.0% $125,000 21% 1.1
Florence 333 383 29% (100) (0.1%) 11.4% $112,721 23% 1.1
Greenville 1,490 1,554 28% 0 0.0% 8.8% $139,000 25% 5.1
Myrtle Beach 1,280 1,372 12% 4,900 4.1% 10.4% $147,499 27% 0.0
Spartanburg 529 529 19% 500 0.4% 10.5% $112,654 23% 2.6
Sumter 306 306 33% 300 0.8% 11.4% $98,946 20% 0.0
South Dakota
Rapid City 364 450 33% (900) (1.5%) 4.9% $122,133 20% 1.2
Sioux Falls 618 957 38% 1,100 0.8% 4.6% $142,706 23% 4.0
Tennessee
Chattanooga 876 1,004 26% 1,600 0.7% 8.4% $122,831 24% 1.2
Clarksville 1,013 1,993 62% 1,000 1.2% 10.1% $101,647 18% 0.0
Cleveland 260 322 34% 0 0.0% 9.5% $107,407 22% 0.1
Jackson 212 212 19% 0 0.0% 10.2% $87,042 18% 0.0
Johnson City 356 702 49% 1,300 1.7% 8.6% $113,816 25% 0.0
Kingsport 407 435 28% 1,000 0.8% 8.1% $110,481 24% 0.0
Knoxville 1,293 1,922 30% 3,800 1.2% 7.7% $141,587 25% 0.5
Memphis 1,468 2,073 19% (9,500) (1.6%) 10.1% $115,099 22% 1.3
Morristown 156 161 21% (400) (0.9%) 11.4% $101,308 21% 0.0
Nashville 3,801 4,342 24% 7,000 1.0% 8.5% $143,700 22% 0.6
Texas
Abilene 251 253 12% (2,500) (3.8%) 6.6% $120,600 20% 4.3
Amarillo 554 893 24% 900 0.8% 5.4% $126,600 21% 2.5
Austin 6,035 10,009 38% 13,700 1.8% 6.7% $196,800 26% 3.3
Beaumont 806 974 39% 2,600 1.6% 11.0% $120,700 21% 2.3
Brownsville 1,042 1,217 31% (600) (0.5%) 11.8% $120,700 29% 3.9
College Station 582 1,138 32% 2,300 2.3% 6.0% $120,700 27% 1.7
Corpus Christi 773 1,309 21% 3,700 2.1% 7.8% $130,800 24% 2.5
Dallas (D) 10,174 16,536 22% 49,600 2.5% 7.9% $166,000 22% 2.2
El Paso 3,087 4,142 64% 3,400 1.2% 10.0% $95,000 20% 0.0
Fort Worth (D) 4,270 5,583 15% 9,300 1.1% 7.8% $135,065 19% 0.7
Houston 20,461 25,884 35% 45,000 1.8% 8.2% $155,100 21% 1.9
Killeen 1,816 2,136 47% 1,700 1.3% 7.8% $124,990 21% 3.0
Laredo 621 768 32% 100 0.1% 8.1% $87,972 16% 0.0
Longview 212 258 16% 1,600 1.7% 6.7% $129,600 22% 3.0
Lubbock 829 1,432 34% 400 0.3% 5.9% $114,900 22% 1.6
McAllen 3,078 3,445 37% 300 0.1% 11.9% $114,300 27% 2.0
Midland 426 426 11% 1,500 2.2% 4.6% $131,037 18% 0.1
Odessa 275 603 29% 2,600 4.3% 6.1% $142,700 25% 4.8
San Angelo 153 153 10% (300) (0.7%) 6.3% $124,300 23% 4.9
San Antonio 4,366 5,775 26% 5,000 0.6% 7.3% $151,800 24% 3.2
Sherman 66 318 29% (100) (0.2%) 8.5% $77,000 13% 0.5
Texarkana 104 251 30% (600) (1.1%) 7.4% $83,610 15% 0.2
Tyler 183 250 9% 700 0.8% 7.4% $136,100 22% 1.5
Victoria 112 112 6% 800 1.6% 7.0% $125,000 20% 2.0
Waco 401 476 16% 500 0.5% 7.3% $117,300 22% 1.8
Wichita Falls 120 134 15% (1,100) (1.9%) 7.1% $109,400 18% 3.1
Utah
Logan 293 587 42% 2,700 5.2% 5.2% $121,052 21% 0.4
Ogden-Clearfield 1,106 1,156 23% 2,900 1.5% 7.2% $128,545 17% 0.0
Provo-Orem 1,289 1,762 27% 3,300 1.9% 7.5% $132,285 18% 0.0
Salt Lake City 1,830 2,601 21% 5,600 0.9% 7.2% $191,409 26% 3.5
St. George 765 772 20% (500) (1.1%) 9.1% $119,904 21% 0.0
Virginia
Charlottesville 573 1,359 52% 1,500 1.5% 4.9% $209,223 27% 0.0
Danville 125 170 33% 1,800 4.6% 9.3% $88,077 19% 0.1
Harrisonburg 349 425 33% 1,100 1.8% 5.8% $160,406 25% 0.0
Lynchburg 440 548 30% 2,200 2.1% 6.6% $135,054 23% 0.0
Richmond 2,338 3,045 27% (9,400) (1.5%) 6.7% $175,000 26% 0.7
Roanoke 405 425 22% (800) (0.5%) 6.3% $140,348 23% 0.0
Virginia Beach 3,022 3,889 16% (900) (0.1%) 6.6% $193,995 29% 3.7
Winchester 318 318 18% 1,500 2.7% 6.3% $139,967 21% 0.0
Washington
Bellingham 382 429 17% (1,500) (1.9%) 8.4% $195,381 29% 0.6
Bremerton 470 625 24% (1,400) (1.7%) 7.9% $253,000 28% 2.7
Kennewick 1,517 2,073 64% (200) (0.2%) 7.4% $178,972 22% 1.5
Longview 125 138 20% (1,000) (2.8%) 11.7% $125,061 19% 0.0
Mount Vernon 188 192 17% (500) (1.1%) 10.0% $169,163 22% 0.0
Olympia 967 1,098 34% (1,200) (1.2%) 8.3% $215,000 26% 3.1
Seattle (D) 4,281 8,877 32% 26,900 2.0% 8.2% $321,000 33% 2.4
Spokane 843 1,734 39% 500 0.2% 9.0% $152,800 24% 1.9
Tacoma (D) 1,631 1,821 27% (700) (0.3%) 9.8% $190,000 24% 0.0
Wenatchee 304 311 28% 300 0.8% 8.8% $169,379 24% 0.0
Yakima 355 636 52% (1,100) (1.4%) 10.3% $149,188 26% 1.8
West Virginia
Charleston 263 325 39% 3,000 2.0% 8.0% $128,001 21% 0.1
Huntington 159 266 42% (200) (0.2%) 8.4% $90,154 17% 0.0
Morgantown 35 137 46% (100) (0.2%) 6.3% $128,329 29% 2.3
Parkersburg 98 98 22% 300 0.4% 8.6% $88,769 16% 0.0
Weirton 18 18 10% 1,600 3.6% 11.0% $74,355 13% 0.0
Wheeling 17 22 8% 300 0.4% 8.6% $77,195 15% 0.0
Wisconsin
Appleton 326 552 25% (1,300) (1.1%) 6.8% $116,328 16% 0.6
Eau Claire 232 356 25% 1,100 1.3% 6.6% $113,848 20% 1.8
Fond Du Lac 73 205 33% 0 0.0% 7.1% $114,994 17% 0.0
Green Bay 487 940 30% (400) (0.2%) 7.2% $131,565 20% 1.7
Janesville 126 136 11% 200 0.3% 9.4% $103,559 16% 0.0
La Crosse 260 343 40% (1,200) (1.6%) 5.8% $119,551 18% 0.0
Madison 756 1,353 22% 3,700 1.1% 5.3% $218,887 30% 4.4
Milwaukee 922 2,012 23% 19,400 2.4% 8.0% $197,247 30% 4.4
Oshkosh-Neenah 202 294 20% (200) (0.2%) 6.7% $110,097 19% 0.9
Racine 130 212 17% 600 0.8% 9.0% $128,288 19% 0.0
Sheboygan 66 66 9% 900 1.5% 7.5% $119,461 17% 0.0
Wausau 231 281 20% (500) (0.7%) 7.7% $112,563 18% 0.5
Wyoming
Casper 277 343 40% 900 2.3% 5.8% $111,896 15% 0.0
Cheyenne 206 206 24% (100) (0.2%) 6.4% $116,543 20% 1.3
* The government defines metro areas and includes metro divisions within some areas. In these instances, we report at the more detailed division level, because that is what most of our clients use for decision making. For example, we report on the Los Angeles and Orange County divisions separately, rather than the Los Angeles MSA, which includes both Los Angeles and Orange counties. We also use the more colloquial names used by business people, so we refer to the "Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine" division as "Orange County." For the government definitions, visit: http://www.census.gov/population/www/metroareas/lists/2009/List1.txt

Building Market Intelligence™

Every week, we deliver analysis to over 40,000 subscribers with our Building Market Intelligence™ newsletter. Subscribe to our weekly BMI newsletters to stay current on pressing topics in the housing industry.

About The Author

Dean Wehrli
Principal
Dean helps housing sector clients figure out not just what might work and what might not, but why.

Contact Us

If you have any questions about our services or if you would like to speak to one of our experts about we can help your business, please contact Client Relations at clientservices@jbrec.com.

Products and Services Mentioned

Research Membership

Our research services enable our clients to gauge housing market conditions and better align their business and strategic investments in the housing industry. We provide a thoughtful and unique holistic approach of both quantitative and qualitative analysis to help clients make informed housing investment decisions.

Real Estate Consulting

Our experienced team of consultants helps clients make sound housing investment decisions. We thrive on their success and work with many clients over multiple years and numerous projects. ​

New Home Trends Institute

The New Home Trends Institute pairs design inspiration with exclusive insights into the “why” behind consumers’ housing choices. Gain exclusive insight into housing preferences and pain points through our monthly survey insights reports, webinars, and proprietary surveys of builders, architects, designers, and other industry professionals.

Latest Insights

Time to Reflect: Five 2023 Trend Predictions We Nailed and One We Didn’t See Coming.
The Missing Resale Market
How Meritage Homes Drew Up a New Blueprint for Success