We now monitor domestic migration trends in near real time, using postal address change forms that are current within a few months. This data has given us far more conviction in expressing a positive demand outlook on 15 markets and a more cautious outlook on another 15 markets, as shown below. This data excludes international migration.
The winners: Strong housing demand
Strong migration continues in:
- Houston
- Jacksonville
- Charlotte
- San Antonio
- Fort Worth
- Nashville
Previously strong migration is now trending less strong than one year ago in:
- Dallas
- Atlanta
- Tampa
- Boise
- Orlando
- Raleigh-Durham
Previously strong migration is now trending to barely positive migration in:
- Phoenix
- Austin
- Las Vegas
The losers: Weak housing demand
Previously strong in-migration is now trending negatively in:
- Sacramento
- Riverside-San Bernardino
Previously small out-migration is now trending as a big out-migration in:
- Denver
- Salt Lake
- Philadelphia
- Seattle
Very negative domestic out-migration continues, which is likely somewhat offset by strong international migration, in:
- East Bay Area
- Orange County
- San Diego
- San Jose
- Miami
- Washington, DC
- Boston
- Chicago
- San Francisco
We compare this demand information to supply trends as well, helping our clients allocate capital to the right MSAs and purchase in the best locations. Research members have access to this information on our Burns Interactive Dashboards. Our consulting team uses this information to help our clients forecast price and sales rates at the community level in more than 390 metropolitan and 550 micropolitan areas, plus an additional 800+ individual counties, giving our clients more confidence in their development investment decisions.
