DemographicsNational Housing Market Outlook

Real-Time Migration Data—30 Migration Winners and Losers

Chris Porter photo
John Burns photo

Chris Porter

John Burns

August 25, 2023
Young Son Helping Parents to Unload a Cargo Van with Furniture and Accessories for Their New Home in SUccessful Residential Area. Kid Bringing a Plant to His Mother. Family Moving to Their New Home.

We now monitor domestic migration trends in near real time, using postal address change forms that are current within a few months. This data has given us far more conviction in expressing a positive demand outlook on 15 markets and a more cautious outlook on another 15 markets, as shown below. This data excludes international migration.

The winners: Strong housing demand

Strong migration continues in:

  1. Houston
  2. Jacksonville
  3. Charlotte
  4. San Antonio
  5. Fort Worth
  6. Nashville


Previously strong migration is now trending less strong than one year ago in:

  1. Dallas
  2. Atlanta
  3. Tampa
  4. Boise
  5. Orlando
  6. Raleigh-Durham


Previously strong migration is now trending to barely positive migration in:

  1. Phoenix
  2. Austin
  3. Las Vegas

The losers: Weak housing demand

Previously strong in-migration is now trending negatively in:

  1. Sacramento
  2. Riverside-San Bernardino


Previously small out-migration is now trending as a big out-migration in:

  1. Denver
  2. Salt Lake
  3. Philadelphia
  4. Seattle


Very negative domestic out-migration continues, which is likely somewhat offset by strong international migration, in:

  1. East Bay Area
  2. Orange County
  3. San Diego
  4. San Jose
  5. Miami
  6. Washington, DC
  7. Boston
  8. Chicago
  9. San Francisco

We compare this demand information to supply trends as well, helping our clients allocate capital to the right MSAs and purchase in the best locations. Research members have access to this information on our Burns Interactive Dashboards. Our consulting team uses this information to help our clients forecast price and sales rates at the community level in more than 390 metropolitan and 550 micropolitan areas, plus an additional 800+ individual counties, giving our clients more confidence in their development investment decisions.

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About The Author

Chris Porter photo
Chris Porter
Senior Vice President, Chief Demographer
Chris brings clarity to JBREC’s clients on demographic trends and translates their impact on local housing markets. He also analyzes and compares local housing market metrics in JBREC’s Metro Analysis and Forecast and Regional Analysis and Forecast monthly reports.
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John Burns
Chief Executive Officer
As CEO, John grows, leads, and supports a team of passionate, articulate, likable, and smart experts. Together, we solve today so our clients can navigate to tomorrow.

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