Optimism Abounds in Dallas

Lesley Deutch photo

Lesley Deutch

October 19, 2023
The Dallas skyline at night in Texas

What do you get when you gather top housing industry executives from across the Dallas Metroplex in a room? You hear a lot of varying opinions about the direction of mortgage rates, capital availability, land prices, deal costs, and recession risk. But there is a collective optimism in the room, as everyone agrees that Dallas is a great long-term bet. The metroplex will benefit from high-paying jobs, relocations, population, and in-migration. A big postseason series win by the Texas Rangers helped fuel confidence in the room.

Bryan Lawrence, the leader of our Dallas office, spoke to the audience at the October 4 event at Bent Tree Country Club and provided an overview of the market and predictions for the future. He used an apt golf analogy: We hit a solid drive off the tee in 2023, but there are bunkers ahead before we finish the hole.

Key takeaways from the discussion

  • The economy is still growing, with most indicators pointing to a soft landing. But warning signs, like student debt, consumer expectations, and rising unemployment, are arising.
  • The inverted treasury yields indicate a coming recession, but the corporate credit spreads do not.
  • New home builders remain successful with the help of mortgage rate buydowns and low resale inventory. Still, Bryan questions whether there will be continued demand for new home sales in this “higher for longer” interest rate environment.
  • The rental market has softened, with moderating rents and slightly higher occupancies. The concern is the high level of supply across many markets, not a shift in demand for rentals.

JBREC Consultant Jay Creighton spoke about the opportunity in Dallas submarkets, highlighting growth potential and value creation. He analyzed income, population, and real estate factors that can drive value and provide opportunities for real estate developers in the current environment.


The meeting continued with food and drinks. As I scanned the room and absorbed Bryan and Jay’s speeches, I realized the opportunities for the Dallas housing market—both for-sale and rental—are plentiful. Available land, a growing population, and a business-friendly climate will continue to fuel real estate demand. You could see in the mix of participants—from recent hires to industry veterans—that all had an optimistic view despite admitting to recent volatility.

Dallas is a growth market for both real estate and talent, and I am excited to watch Bryan and Jay lead the JBREC team and provide the industry’s most forward-looking, detailed, and accurate trends. They are off to a great start!

Building Market Intelligence™

Every week, we deliver analysis to over 40,000 subscribers with our Building Market Intelligence™ newsletter. Subscribe to our weekly BMI newsletters to stay current on pressing topics in the housing industry.

About The Author

Lesley Deutch photo
Lesley Deutch
Managing Principal
Lesley has more than 25 years of experience consulting with executives in the finance and real estate industries throughout North America. She works across a wide spectrum of industries including apartments, for-sale housing, high-rise development, urban projects, single-family rental, building products, and commercial developments.

Contact Us

If you have any questions about our services or if you would like to speak to one of our experts about we can help your business, please contact Client Relations at clientservices@jbrec.com.

Products and Services Mentioned

green check icon

Real Estate Consulting

Our experienced team of consultants helps clients make sound housing investment decisions. We thrive on their success and work with many clients over multiple years and numerous projects.
green check icon

Research Membership

Our research services enable our clients to gauge housing market conditions and better align their business and strategic investments in the housing industry. We provide a thoughtful and unique holistic approach of both quantitative and qualitative analysis to help clients make informed housing investment decisions.
green check icon

Metro and Regional Housing Package

An overview of major housing and economic trends, as well as forecasts across 100 MSAs nationwide. The information in this subscription package provides a complete picture of housing supply, demand, and affordability through local insight, proprietary surveys, and extensive data analysis.

Latest Insights

Unlocking the Potential of Generative AI and Large Language Models for Your Business
Dear Consultant: How do we get more inventory so that the housing market has more slack?
Busting Gen Z Myths—What the Housing Industry Needs to Know