What do you get when you gather top housing industry executives from across the Dallas Metroplex in a room? You hear a lot of varying opinions about the direction of mortgage rates, capital availability, land prices, deal costs, and recession risk. But there is a collective optimism in the room, as everyone agrees that Dallas is a great long-term bet. The metroplex will benefit from high-paying jobs, relocations, population, and in-migration. A big postseason series win by the Texas Rangers helped fuel confidence in the room.
Bryan Lawrence, the leader of our Dallas office, spoke to the audience at the October 4 event at Bent Tree Country Club and provided an overview of the market and predictions for the future. He used an apt golf analogy: We hit a solid drive off the tee in 2023, but there are bunkers ahead before we finish the hole.
Key takeaways from the discussion
- The economy is still growing, with most indicators pointing to a soft landing. But warning signs, like student debt, consumer expectations, and rising unemployment, are arising.
- The inverted treasury yields indicate a coming recession, but the corporate credit spreads do not.
- New home builders remain successful with the help of mortgage rate buydowns and low resale inventory. Still, Bryan questions whether there will be continued demand for new home sales in this “higher for longer” interest rate environment.
- The rental market has softened, with moderating rents and slightly higher occupancies. The concern is the high level of supply across many markets, not a shift in demand for rentals.
JBREC Consultant Jay Creighton spoke about the opportunity in Dallas submarkets, highlighting growth potential and value creation. He analyzed income, population, and real estate factors that can drive value and provide opportunities for real estate developers in the current environment.
The meeting continued with food and drinks. As I scanned the room and absorbed Bryan and Jay’s speeches, I realized the opportunities for the Dallas housing market—both for-sale and rental—are plentiful. Available land, a growing population, and a business-friendly climate will continue to fuel real estate demand. You could see in the mix of participants—from recent hires to industry veterans—that all had an optimistic view despite admitting to recent volatility.
Dallas is a growth market for both real estate and talent, and I am excited to watch Bryan and Jay lead the JBREC team and provide the industry’s most forward-looking, detailed, and accurate trends. They are off to a great start!