National Housing Market Outlook

New Home Prices Are About to Be Down -15% from Their Peak.

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Danielle Nguyen

John Burns

July 7, 2023

New homes are about to get even more affordable—down -15% from their peak. 

This is a return to early 2022 pricing. How do we know this?

  • We compared the price per square foot on more than ~7,300 communities on the 19 public home builders’ websites to their prices per square foot one year ago.
  • There are some apples-to-oranges comparisons here, as these projects are in new locations and are most likely at lower specification levels. Still, we feel comfortable that a -15% correction is about right because:
    • The correction is about 3% higher than reported thus far in our monthly builder survey;
    • The correction is similar to that shown in the chart below, which is our aggregation of historical public home builder prices;
    • our consulting team’s visits to hundreds of communities each month confirm the same; and
    • new communities will tend to be smaller (square footage has declined -1% so far, as shown in the second chart below) and have lower specification levels than one year ago.

As the market continues to evolve, we hope to give our clients clarity with thoughtful insight into where the market is headed. If you have significant investments in housing in any capacity, our research memberships and/or consulting services can keep you more informed than ever, allowing for early decision-making that leads to significant profits. To learn more about our research and consulting services, please fill out this form.

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About The Author

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Danielle Nguyen
Vice President of Research
Danielle manages, implements, and analyzes the housing market with a specific focus on for-sale and for-rent research. She is a research content creator who produces high-quality, insightful, and forward-looking housing research and a trusted resource (connector) for clients and those interested in JBREC’s research.
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John Burns
Chief Executive Officer
As CEO, John grows, leads, and supports a team of passionate, articulate, likable, and smart experts. Together, we solve today so our clients can navigate to tomorrow.

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