National Housing Market Outlook

JBREC’s 2023 Wrapped: A Year of Resilience

Deana Vidal photo
Ted Beam
Mikaela Arroyo photo
danielle Nguyen photo

Deana Vidal

Ted Beam

Mikaela Arroyo

Danielle Nguyen

Asia Inn-Souphomphakdy

Richard Mones

January 8, 2024

The past year presented challenges and triumphs, but the housing industry weathered the storm. We are excited to see what 2024 has in store.

Reflecting on 2023, we’d like to share the year’s top 10 most popular newsletters.

Before diving into the content, we want to express heartfelt gratitude to our incredible readers and talented team members (PALS), who work tirelessly to bring you the latest and most relevant information.

Finally, a big thank you to our marketing team for their innovative strategies, which ensure that our insights reach those who need them most.

10. ADUs Surge in California, Gain Momentum Nationwide
by Scott Wild and Chelsea Scott

Why ADUs? Why now? As we grapple with challenging housing affordability, ADUs are an innovative solution to unlock growth and satisfy pent-up demand for housing.

adus-surge-in-california

9. How Long Will Home Builder Euphoria Last?
New Home Insights Podcast by Dean Wehrli, featuring Rick Palacios, Jr.

The new home sector thrived despite low-mortgage-rate golden handcuffs keeping a huge chunk of the existing home market in cryogenic stasis. There is a case for continued good times even if resale listings rise and mortgage rates stay elevated.

8. 3 Rental Classes Compete for Dollars and Tenants
by James Mc Keever and Jesse McConnico

Our Rental Communities Analysis and Forecast report, which tracks build-to-rent (BTR), scattered single-family rental homes (SFR), and apartment trends nationwide, illustrates how single-family rents are a stable business, while BTR and apartment rents are more volatile.

7. Top 50 Master-Planned Communities (MPCs) in 2022
by Jody Kahn, Devyn Bachman, and Dillan Krieg

Master-planned communities (MPCs) saw strong but slowing demand in 2022, with their shared amenities and desirable lifestyles attracting many home buyers. The 500+ communities we surveyed felt significant supply and demand pressure throughout 2022, with development delays bottlenecking builders’ lot supply and rising mortgage rates pricing out many buyers. Florida commanded the top 50 ranking with 12 of the top 25 best-selling communities, benefiting from strong domestic migration.

We just released the top 50 MPCs for 2023. Check it out here and view our historical top 50 MPC lists here.

6. 24 Trends for 2024: A Year of Hunkering Down
by Mikaela Arroyo

During the pandemic, work and play became homebound activities, and builders tested the limit on how many new functions could be crammed into the same-sized house. As prices and rates soared in 2023, we stress-tested those functions to see what could stay in an even smaller house.

As we head into 2024, we are calling for a year of hunkering down—a year of dialing it back to the basic priorities of attracting consumers with the right spaces for the right price.

5. Introducing the Building Products Demand Meter
by Matt Saunders and Elizabeth La Jeunesse

Do you care about market share? JBREC and Home Innovation Research Labs introduced what we believe is the best and most current data and forecast tool to help US building products companies size their market and track their growth rates relative to the market.

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4. Rate Buydowns Deliver for Builders and Buyers
by Jody Kahn and Devyn Bachman

Housing affordability has never been worse. Never. In the last three years, home prices have grown twice as fast as incomes, and 30-year mortgage rates more than doubled, climbing above 7%—the highest mortgage rates in 21 years! Mortgage payments have grown +89% in just three years.

Despite these seemingly insurmountable obstacles, new home sales remain resilient, exceeding seasonal norms for August and September. How are builders still selling homes with mortgage rates above 7.5%? It’s all about the rate buydown.

jbrec-rate-buydown-and-incentive-graph-final

3. 5.5% Is the Magic Mortgage Rate
by Maegan Sherlock and John Burns

Mortgage rates below 5.5% work. In late February and early March, our New Home Trends Institute team surveyed more than 1,300 homeowners and renters with household incomes of $50,000+ and learned that 55% believe now is a bad time to buy a home, while 22% think it is a good time to buy.

jbrec-highest-acceptable-mortgage-rate-graph

2. Real-Time Migration Data: 30 Migration Winners and Losers
by Chris Porter and John Burns

We now monitor domestic migration trends in near real time, using current postal address change forms within a few months of submission. This data has given us far more conviction in expressing a positive demand outlook on 15 markets and a more cautious outlook on another 15 markets.

migration-trends-by-metro-graph-updated

1. Homeownership Is Now $1,000+ per Month More Expensive Than Renting
by Danielle Nguyen

Higher mortgage rates and elevated resale prices continue to challenge for-sale housing affordability. These hurdles have resulted in a higher-than-usual number of renters staying in place and even more buyers moving to the sidelines as they can no longer afford to purchase a home.

We are excited to lead the way in providing a deeper analysis of the housing market in 2024 and beyond. As the market evolves, we strive to give our clients clarity with thoughtful insight into their direction and timing. To learn more about our different research memberships and consulting services, please fill out this form.

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About The Author

Deana Vidal photo
Deana Vidal
Director, Brand Strategy
Deana applies consumer insights and design trends into practical applications to help clients make decisions about their communities and companies. She is also a brand awareness advocate who enjoys public speaking, innovation, and taking on odd assignments and unique client requests.
Ted Beam
Ted Beam
Director of Publishing Operations
Ted ensures that JBREC’s research reports look professional, are easily digestible for our clients, and are error-free.
Mikaela Arroyo photo
Mikaela Arroyo
Vice President, NHTI | Chief of Staff
Mikaela leads trend research for the New Home Trends Institute, conducting monthly surveys of consumers and industry professionals to better understand housing pain points and desires. As Chief of Staff to the CEO, Mikaela strategizes and supports the daily operations of the company, focusing on business initiatives.
danielle Nguyen photo
Danielle Nguyen
Vice President of Research
Danielle manages, implements, and analyzes the housing market with a specific focus on for-sale and for-rent research. She is a research content creator who produces high-quality, insightful, and forward-looking housing research and a trusted resource (connector) for clients and those interested in JBREC’s research.
Asia Inn-Souphomphakdy
Manager, Marketing | Brand & Creative
Asia maintains quality control of JBREC’s brand identity and digital marketing collateral. She also focuses on centralizing the company’s design initiatives through an internal creative team.
Richard Mones
Senior Director of Marketing
Richard manages, implements, and integrates all marketing efforts for the company. Richard leads the company’s marketing team which is focused on enhancing business growth through brand equity and awareness.

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Products and Services Mentioned

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Research Membership

Our research services enable our clients to gauge housing market conditions and better align their business and strategic investments in the housing industry. We provide a thoughtful and unique holistic approach of both quantitative and qualitative analysis to help clients make informed housing investment decisions.
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Real Estate Consulting

Our experienced team of consultants helps clients make sound housing investment decisions. We thrive on their success and work with many clients over multiple years and numerous projects.
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Metro and Regional Housing Package

An overview of major housing and economic trends, as well as forecasts across 100 MSAs nationwide. The information in this subscription package provides a complete picture of housing supply, demand, and affordability through local insight, proprietary surveys, and extensive data analysis.

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