DemographicsNational Housing Market Outlook

Immigration Stokes US Population Growth

Eric Finnigan photo
Chris Porter photo

Eric Finnigan

Chris Porter

December 22, 2023

Immigration will fuel the majority of US population growth in the next decade. This immigration-related growth will impact local housing markets around the country—especially in California, Florida, Texas, Nevada, and the Northeast.

What does immigration-fueled population growth mean for housing?

  1. Expect higher demand for rental housing since new immigrants usually rent homes.
  2. More family-oriented and multigenerational homes are needed, with additional bedrooms and attainable price points.
  3. Builders and manufacturers will likely see a slight improvement in labor availability over the next few years.

Population growth will rise to 1.8 million annually.

We expect the US population will increase by over 1.8 million annually through 2033, 400K more per year than recent Census projections.

We believe future immigration will resemble 2014–2017 more than the lower levels of 2019–2021 caused by the pandemic and restrictive government policies.

Immigration is key to driving population growth when births are falling, and deaths are rising.

Net immigration will account for 67% of population growth in the next 10 years, a significant jump from 54% since 2013.

A tight job market will attract foreign workers. Low unemployment rates and a slower-growing working-age population will draw more foreign workers into the US.

 

Lower fertility rates and an aging population will narrow the gap between births and deaths, reducing the contribution of natural population change.

Diverse regional impacts

More immigration will have unique impacts on housing markets around the US. Areas with high densities of foreign-born populations (California, Florida, Texas, Nevada, and the Northeast) will see the most significant influx.

Demographics determine the direction of business and have huge implications for housing. Leaders who understand these demographic shifts are at a distinct advantage. 

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About The Author

Eric Finnigan photo
Eric Finnigan
Vice President of Demographics Research
Eric co-leads demographics research at JBREC, helping clients understand how trends in population, households, and migration impact housing demand. He also oversees the US Remodeler Index, a quarterly survey covering the residential remodeling industry.
Chris Porter photo
Chris Porter
Senior Vice President, Chief Demographer
Chris brings clarity to JBREC’s clients on demographic trends and translates their impact on local housing markets. He also analyzes and compares local housing market metrics in JBREC’s Metro Analysis and Forecast and Regional Analysis and Forecast monthly reports.

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