National Housing Market Outlook

Huge Gains in New Home Sales and Pricing 10 Years after the Downturn

Devyn Bachman photo
Jody Kahn

Devyn Bachman

Jody Kahn

June 22, 2018

Ten years after John Burns Real Estate Consulting began surveying home builders every month, new home sales and pricing feedback demonstrate a solid and sustained recovery.

Our June 2018 survey capturing 358 metro ratings across 83 metros confirms that demand for new homes remains strong, while low inventory and rising costs promote rising home prices. The landscape looked very different when we initiated our Housing from the Frontlines survey in June 2008.

  • In June 2008, 65% of participating builders rated current sales as Poor, and 58% indicated they reduced prices month over month. Builders were drowning in finished homes, averaging over 5 per community, which contributed to falling prices.

  • In June 2018, 58% of builders report Good current sales, with 59% raising prices (net of incentives) month over month. Very low inventory averaging 1.5 homes per community and rising costs drive strong price increases year over year.

Changing demographics have continued to impact housing demand over the last 10 years. Our builder survey captures strong demand for new homes targeting 55+ buyers, as well as re-energized demand from first-time buyers. Chris Porter, our Chief Demographer and coauthor of our book Big Shifts Ahead, shares some demographic changes from 2008 to 2018 below:

Significant pent-up demand among young adults

  • We estimate 27% of young adults aged 25–34 are living with relatives in 2018*, up from 20% in 2008. Although the Great Recession delayed employment and earning power for many young adults, our survey participants report strong demand for first-time buyers today.

  • First-time buyers have delayed home ownership. We estimate that 50% of new households own a home at age 37 in 2018*. In 2008, 50% of new households achieved homeownership by age 32, five years earlier than today.

Huge opportunity to sell homes targeting boomers

  • 45 million baby boomers (61%) have reached their 60th birthday as of 2018 by our estimates*, up from 9 million (11% of the generation) in 2008.

  • Not just the Sunbelt. Our builder contacts see strong active adult demand across many obvious (Phoenix, Florida) and not-so-obvious (Indianapolis, Columbus) metros and price points.
 

Our monthly survey has been a leading indicator for new home sales, pricing, inventory, and cost pressure for 10 years now. Matched responses, both year over year and month over month, support our accurate conclusions. The insights shared by participating home builders:

  • Inform our understanding of this long and muted housing recovery

  • Highlight significant differences by region and home buyer types

  • Influence our new home volume and price forecasts

  • Quantify rising materials and labor costs

  • Provide great insight into the labor shortages, jurisdictional restrictions, and other dynamics that shape new construction
 

Research clients receive our timely and accurate builder survey analysis just days after each month ends.

Production home builders interested in participating in our confidential survey in exchange for the full report may contact Jody Kahn or Devyn Bachman.

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About The Author

Devyn Bachman photo
Devyn Bachman
Chief Operating Officer
Devyn oversees daily operations for our business and ensures we are equipped to best support our clients and partners nationwide. She is responsible for aligning all PALS with our vision, leading strategic initiatives, and maximizing resources to achieve our Evergreen goals. Devyn is also a national housing expert who is available to provide our clients and associates with the most timely and accurate insights into current and future market conditions.
Jody Kahn
Jody Kahn
Senior Vice President of Research Surveys
Jody delivers timely and accurate insights on housing market trends at the metro, regional, and national levels. She combines statistics and commentary from JBREC’s independent surveys with data trends, forecasts, proprietary indices, feedback from consultants, and decades of housing experience to give clients insights that support business decisions.

Contact Us

If you have any questions about our services or if you would like to speak to one of our experts about we can help your business, please contact Client Relations at clientservices@jbrec.com.

Products and Services Mentioned

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Burns Home Builder Survey

Our monthly survey delivers the most timely and accurate insights for new home market conditions, capturing feedback from production home builders across the country.
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Proprietary Surveys

Our family of proprietary surveys provide clients with irreplaceable insights to support their housing-related business decisions. The analysis combines survey data and the harder to obtain sentiment to deliver a cohesive view of market conditions.
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Research Membership

Our research services enable our clients to gauge housing market conditions and better align their business and strategic investments in the housing industry. We provide a thoughtful and unique holistic approach of both quantitative and qualitative analysis to help clients make informed housing investment decisions.

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