National Housing Market Outlook

Five Minutes at the Builders’ Show

JBurns Headshot_web

John Burns

January 31, 2018

2018 Forecast

We have the most bullish 2018 price and volume forecast of those we track, and we are increasing our forecasts right now. Why?

  • Sales: According to our proprietary survey, new home sales rates rose 16% YOY in Q4, showing us that consumer demand is strong.
  • Land buying: Our feasibility and portfolio valuation businesses are booming, indicating that there are plenty of buyers and sellers right now.

10-Year Forecast

As we note in our book Big Shifts Ahead*, the demographics are massively clear over the next 10 years. Just look at who was renting and buying in urban areas over the last 10 years and know that they will all be 10 years older. The demand will be:

  • Entry-level buyers
  • 65+ year old home buyers as well as home sellers shifting to rental homes

Risks

The longer the good times last and the more that home price appreciation exceeds income growth, the riskier the market becomes. That said, construction is probably the best positioned industry in the country right now. There is so much pent-up demand and so little supply. Also, builders and building products companies are so well capitalized and able to withstand a downturn that construction should be the growth story even if the US goes into a recession. We have started calling the next recession a “hiccup” rather than a “downturn,” given the industry dynamics.

*I am proud to announce we just authorized a third printing of 5000 books, have a 4.6 rating on Amazon, and are still in the top 50 best selling books list on urban and regional planning, demography, and forecasting. Most importantly, the feedback from our clients has been phenomenal.

Building Market Intelligence™

Every week, we deliver analysis to over 40,000 subscribers with our Building Market Intelligence™ newsletter. Subscribe to our weekly BMI newsletters to stay current on pressing topics in the housing industry.

About The Author

John Burns
Chief Executive Officer
As CEO, John grows, leads, and supports a team of passionate, articulate, likable, and smart experts. Together, we solve today so our clients can navigate to tomorrow.

Contact Us

If you have any questions about our services or if you would like to speak to one of our experts about we can help your business, please contact Client Relations at clientservices@jbrec.com.

Products and Services Mentioned

Research Membership

Our research services enable our clients to gauge housing market conditions and better align their business and strategic investments in the housing industry. We provide a thoughtful and unique holistic approach of both quantitative and qualitative analysis to help clients make informed housing investment decisions.

Real Estate Consulting

Our experienced team of consultants helps clients make sound housing investment decisions. We thrive on their success and work with many clients over multiple years and numerous projects. ​

New Home Trends Institute

The New Home Trends Institute pairs design inspiration with exclusive insights into the “why” behind consumers’ housing choices. Gain exclusive insight into housing preferences and pain points through our monthly survey insights reports, webinars, and proprietary surveys of builders, architects, designers, and other industry professionals.

Latest Insights

Design Disruption: Architects’ Floor Plan Forecasts
Keep, Stop, Start: Homebuilding’s Health Kick
$12 Billion Remodeling Boost